How the Carolina Panthers Won the Super Bowl

This feature is part of Super Bowl Week at VICE Sports.

Yes, we're aware the Super Bowl hasn't been played yet. This is my best guess at the scenarios Carolina needs to create in order to win (besides obvious swings like winning the turnover battle or special teams touchdowns). We've done the same for Denver.

Carolina Ran the Ball as They Wished

Denver had by far the best pass defense in the NFL this season. In fact, had Demarcus Ware been healthy all season, they might have had a historically great one. They were a little more susceptible to the running game: the Broncos finished with merely the fourth-best rushing defense in the eyes of DVOA.

Kansas City was able to pound the rock against Denver in the regular season. Frank Gore had a throwback day for the Colts to hand the Broncos their first loss. So it shouldn't have been shocking that the Panthers were able to create havoc up front against Denver.

Cam Newton changes the way defenses have to play the Carolina front. Denver's linebackers are on the field because of their cover ability. After seeing what Newton and company were able to put on Arizona, the resulting 200 yards of rushing and time of possession dominance weren't surprising.

The Panthers Didn't Let Peyton Manning Target the Middle

One Carolina advantage that I think I don't read quite enough about is their middle linebackers. Thomas Davis is just the latest in a long line of big college safeties making hay as star NFL linebackers. Luke Kuechly is, frankly, ridiculous. His motor runs hot, and his instincts are as top-class as you'll find at the linebacker position today. Kuechly was a huge key in winning this game.

Manning, for all his cerebral pre-snap reads, just doesn't have the arm to stick throws in against two rangy linebackers like these guys. Kuechly was able to bat two passes down in the first half. Davis picked off another one to set up Carolina deep in Denver territory. Even when Carolina played zone, it was clear that Manning couldn't do much but hit underneath routes.

That left Denver with only outside balls—ones even harder for Manning's arm strength to compete on. The receivers were winning outside on backup Panthers corners. Manning couldn't do much about it.

Carolina Made Their Red Zone Trips Count

The Panthers finished the regular season third in red zone DVOA, and 11th in red zone rushing DVOA. The Broncos, for all their star power on defense, were 30th in red zone rushing DVOA.

That kind of discrepancy is common in Denver's overall defense. They finished 31st in power success rate (that is, opposing runners converted in those situations at a high rate). It's just not a defense built to play against the kind of tough interior line the Panthers have.

Combine that with Newton's typical brilliance under center, and Denver just couldn't keep Carolina out of the end zone. Denver's path to relevance in this game was making Carolina settle for three. They couldn't even manage one red zone field-goal attempt.

Denver's Next Good Kubiak Offensive Game Will Be Their First

We've gone over key matchups and places where numbers would say an advantage can be had, but let's get a little broader here: Was there ever a reason to believe that the Broncos could deliver competent offensive play in this game? I'm not sure I can find one.

Pro Football Focus observed that there were two clear periods of time for Denver this season with Manning coming into the game, which can be classified as playing either Manning's offense or Kubiak's offense.

In the Kubiak offense, Manning's regular season DVOA splits went: -62.5 percent, 29.4 percent, -35.5 percent. Their overall offensive DVOA in four of five games is negative. In the one that wasn't, against Pittsburgh in the Divisional Round, the Broncos managed a thrilling 3 percent DVOA.

It's not like Kubiak is willfully doing a poor job of coaching Manning. At this point, the best solution for the Broncos with Manning may actually be to limit his pass attempts. Why they won't turn back to Brock Osweiler is another story, one filled with fear of the unknown.