The Carolina Panthers Are Betting They Don't Need Josh Norman, And They Could Be Right

Two years ago, Josh Norman was a fifth-round pick coming off a rookie season filled with bad tape, acclimating to NFL life under a new general manager. Yet after the Carolina Panthers rescinded Norman's franchise tag late Wednesday, he's poised to become one of the most highly paid cornerbacks in league history.

If you want to understand why Panthers general manager Dave Gettleman was willing to let Norman go, start with the gap between those two sentences.

In 2016, Norman played at an empirically high level. Pro Football Focus had him with their lowest passer rating allowed among all cornerbacks. And, in the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately world that is pro football, it makes sense that teams would gravitate toward Norman's recent success—in fact, the defensive back reportedly has drawn the interest of a third of the league's clubs, despite free agency being over:

8-9 teams have contacted Josh Norman's representatives since Panthers rescinded the tag, per league source.

— Joe Person (@josephperson)April 21, 2016

But look at Norman's recent past. If Carolina had waived him following the 2013 season, he might have gone unclaimed, and without a second thought. He appeared in just seven games that year. While Norman's 2014 season was good, he wasn't initially in the Panthers' starting lineup. He only started getting regular snaps when Carolina benched an undrafted free agent, Melvin White, after Week 3.

Based on the first two years and one month of his career, Norman has beaten huge odds to become a priority free agent, let alone someone worth a franchise tag.

Now consider Gettleman's Carolina tenure. Since taking over the Panthers in early 2013, he hasn't spent a single Day 1 or Day 2 NFL Draft pick on the team's secondary. Tre Boston, a 2014 fourth-rounder, has been Gettleman's highest cornerback selection.

Over the same time frame, the Panthers largely have been able to paper over their secondary with unwanted veteran free agents. The following players have had 600-snap seasons in Carolina's defensive backfield: Quintin Mikell, Drayton Florence, Roman Harper, Antoine Cason, Thomas DeCoud, Charles Tillman, and Kurt Coleman. All of those players were at least 27 years old in their first Panthers season, and four of them were out of the league after their last season in Carolina. The other three all played for the Panthers in 2015.

On the basis of talent, analysts have been ragging on Carolina's secondary for years. But, in 2014, the Panthers finished ninth in pass defense DVOA. In 2013, they finished third. Some of this is system-based, and some of this is because Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis are two of the most phenomenal coverage linebackers in the NFL. But in neither of those years did Carolina have a shutdown corner or dominant safety.

So when Gettleman says of Norman that "the more we thought about it, the more flexibility that $14 million would give us," I'm inclined to believe him. At first, there probably wasn't much serious thought given by Carolina's decision makers to not franchising Norman. He played at such a high level last season that it would go against every NFL norm not to do so.

But as negotiations dragged on, and as the Panthers realized there would be no long-term deal, they probably began to consider other factors. Some of them likely revolved around the typical football mindset—not wanting a distraction, not wanting to give in to a player's contract demands, and so on.

The other part of the equation is less a matter of principle, and more a matter of practicality: Haven't the Panthers shown that a) they can succeed without NFL-approved defensive back talent and b) they can create a Josh Norman out of nowhere?

You'd have to say the answer is "yes." And if the team can spend the money they were tying up in Norman on extensions for players they believe are more important to their success, then isn't that the right move?

I believe it is.

Make no mistake, this is an extremely peculiar move by league standards. Gettleman is going against the grain, and the timing can only be described as bizarre. But if you look at what Carolina was getting out of what they've put in, I think there's some logic to freeing up the dollars they otherwise would be allocating to Norman. Defensive tackles Kawaan Short and Star Lotulelei deserve extensions, and that money isn't going to magically appear without sacrifices somewhere.

As for Norman, he gets to live the dream: he's now the last star-quality free agent on the market, with tens of millions of cap dollars still uncommitted. The Panthers did right by him. And, if they're right about their gamble, they'll have done right by themselves too.