The Six Most Surprising Teams in the NHL

Surprises. Many people love them. Some don't. Remember that guy in the Discover commercial that lost his mind when he walked in on his surprise party? That was weird. Did they test those ads with anyone before airing them? Why are there are only like four total in the series?

Sorry. I lost my train of thought. The point is, there are good surprises and there are bad surprises in both life and hockey. At the halfway point of the NHL season, there are a few teams that are wildly exceeding expectations and some that are underachieving in the face of recent success and immense talent. These are the teams that make people wonder why we bother to do preseason predictions in the first place.

These are the six teams that have made the least sense midway through the season.

What's working: Victor Hedman is a legitimate Norris Trophy contender. Nikita Kucherov has been carrying the team offensively with Steven Stamkos out. Jonathan Drouin is looking like the real deal. Despite Stamkos missing 25 games, the Lightning aren't completely dead at the halfway point.

What's not working: Remember how Ben Bishop and Andrei Vasilevskiy were going to form a two-headed goaltending monster? Both have save percentages below .910. Tyler Johnson's 2014-15 season is looking like a mirage. Injuries to key players other than Stamkos have been taking their toll. It's hard to believe this is the team that had us drooling when GM Steve Yzerman signed Kucherov, Stamkos and Hedman to bargain deals in the offseason.

Second-half outlook: Stamkos may not be back until mid-March, so don't expect him to carry the Lightning to the playoffs. If they can stay healthy, they can close the gap on Ottawa for the third spot in the Atlantic. Bishop and Vasilevskiy should improve as well. It's no slam dunk, but Tampa should get it together.

What's working: Thomas Greiss has a .927 save percentage. And … ummm … the ice hasn't completed melted at Barclays Center? They're getting rid of their heinous third jerseys next season? It's rough. The only sadder sight in Brooklyn right now is any of the Papa John's located in the borough.

What's not working: John Tavares is on pace for 57 points, his lowest total in an 82-game season since his rookie year. Andrew Ladd has fewer points than Dennis Seidenberg. Jaroslav Halak is in the AHL. Jack Capuano is still behind the bench. Even the SUV next to the glass probably doesn't run anymore.

Second-half outlook: The one thing the Islanders have going for them is games in hand on the teams they're chasing. It's going to take a miraculous second half for the Islanders to get back to the postseason.

What's working: Everything? They have the fifth-best power play in NHL history. Cam Atkinson is on pace for 40 goals after a career-best 27 last season. Sergei Bobrovsky is playing like a Vezina/Hart candidate. Zach Werenski is the best rookie defenseman in the league. Sam Gagner may score 30 goals. John Tortorella hasn't murdered a player in a show of strength to the other players.

What's not working: Boone Jenner had 30 goals last year and just six this year. Ryan Murray has four points after a career-best 25 a year ago. And they're still having a Presidents' Trophy level first half.

Second-half outlook: The possession numbers and PDO say the Blue Jackets are going to slip and they've already dropped three of four after winning 16 straight. But even if they go in the tank, they're so far ahead of the pack that the worst-case scenario for the Blue Jackets is a wild-card spot. It's also the most likely outcome.

What's working: It's the Connor McDavid show but he's received support. Leon Draisaitl is quietly moving toward a career-best offensive season while lurking in McDavid's shadow. Milan Lucic will never, ever, ever be worth his contract but he's on his way toward 20 goals. Cam Talbot is doing just enough in net to keep the Oilers in a playoff spot. Their new mascot Hunter hasn't killed any children (that we know of).

What's not working: Adam Larsson hasn't been great. Darnell Nurse showed he wasn't ready yet. Kris Russell … is playing like Kris Russell. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is headed toward his worst offensive season, which is related to McDavid and Draisaitl playing bigger roles. Jordan Eberle may fail to score 20 goals in an 82-game season for the first time since he was a rookie.

Second-half outlook: As long as the Pacific Division remains a mess and McDavid plays at an MVP level, the playoffs are coming back to Edmonton. Nothing about their underlying numbers says this is a fluke, but so much of it depends on McDavid. My money is on them being a playoff team, but keep in mind the money is fictional and I'm not really betting it.

What's working: Not a lot. Viktor Arvidsson has 10 goals in 39 games after eight in his first 62 career games. Mike Fisher has 11 goals and 25 points after he had 13 goals and 23 points all last season. Everything else remotely positive still has been disappointing on some level, even PK Subban.

What's not working: Subban was producing fine but a back injury could keep him out through the All-Star Game. Pekka Rinne bounces between red-hot and comically bad. Filip Forsberg is one a few players that have forgotten how to score. And, if we're being honest, those yellow jerseys.

Second-half outlook: They have too many players with great track records to play this poorly the rest of the season. They're in the black when it comes to goal differential. And really, if you don't want an offseason of Montreal smugness, the last thing you want is the Canadiens winning their division and the Predators missing the playoffs one year after the Shea Weber trade.

What's working: Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn are still their usual selves. Jason Spezza has been OK. Patrick Eaves isn't far from a 30-goal pace.

What's not working: One sign the season was potentially doomed was when Devin Shore admitted he doesn't like pizza. Sure, Patrick Sharp has been hurt for most of the season and injuries have been an issue for a lot of players; Kari Lehtonen and Antti Niemi still don't make saves and John Klingberg may have been poisoned by spending a few months with Kris Russell last season, but having someone on your team that hates pizza probably does things to chemistry we can't understand.

Second-half outlook: As bad as things have gone, they are two points out of a playoff spot. And it's not as if bad goaltending hurt the Stars last year. They need a Klingberg resurgence, contributions from Sharp and it wouldn't hurt if Ales Hemsky can get back from labrum surgery before the season ends. It's not bleak but the playoffs might not be … in the Stars.

Sorry.

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