​Week 17 NFL Game Previews: Tying Up Loose Ends

Playoff Spot for Grabs I: Pittsburgh at Cleveland, 1 ET (CBS)

For Pittsburgh, it's simple: a win and a New York Jets loss puts them in the playoffs. Any other combination, and they're left to lament the games they threw away.

But for all the quitting the Steelers do against bad teams, they don't tend to let the Browns off the mat often. They're 28-6 against Cleveland since the New Browns showed up in 1999, and have won nine of the last 11 games in the series.

Doctors diagnosed Johnny Manziel with a concussion. That's good news for another annual Browns tradition: The Third-String Quarterback Starting Week 17 has come to pass again in Cleveland. Austin Davis will get his big chance to prove he deserves to be on a roster next year.

Cleveland actually has another extra incentive to lose here: a loss and a Titans win will give them the No. 1 pick in the draft. A win, and they could pick as high as fourth.

Pick: Pittsburgh 27, Cleveland 13

Playoff Spot for Grabs II: New York Jets at Buffalo, 1 ET (CBS)

Rex Ryan lives to troll his rivals, and here is his latest grand opportunity. A Jets loss, plus a Steelers win, will put Pittsburgh in the dance. Buffalo is a bit banged up, with Marcell Dareus and LeSean McCoy likely out. McCoy's injury may actually help, as Karlos Williams and Mike Gillislee have both produced in small sample sizes. The Bills have nothing but pride to play for, but Ryan should want to put the best spin possible on this season.

The Jets have just been so hot lately that it's hard to imagine them dropping this game. Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker have helped mask Ryan Fitzpatrick's issues. The defense has been dominant over the past four weeks, posting four straight defensive DVOAs higher than negative-10%. (Negative DVOA is good for defenses.)

If you look at trends, you'll see little reason to pick Buffalo here. Of course, as we learned last week with the Seattle offense, every trend is bound to die sooner or later. Call me a cynic, but I think Buffalo will play their best game on Sunday and put the Jets on the outside looking in.

Pick: Jets 23, Bills 24

Such Playoff Importance Game of the Week: Minnesota at Green Bay, 8:30 ET NBC

Sunday Night Football on NBC has traditionally delivered us "win and you're in" games in Week 17. The nightmare scenario this year, of course, is that the Steelers lose and the Jets won't have to play their game against Buffalo like it matters.

So instead we get the seedings game at the bottom of the NFC race. The winner of this game will get the third seed. The loser will be either the fifth or sixth seed, depending on how the game below shakes out. Green Bay is locked into the fifth seed if they lose, Minnesota could drop further.

Both teams will be playing to win this one, but this match might be less compelling than you'd think. Arizona just exposed the Green Bay offensive line last weekend. The Packers offense was already inconsistent before the line got banged up. The Vikings are rising, having hammered the Giants and Bears the last two weeks.

I'm wary of picking against Aaron Rodgers, but he'd need to pull out another incredible game to get a victory. So, even with the homefield against them, the Vikings have been a better team of late.

Pick: Minnesota 20, Green Bay 16

Football Nerd Game of the Week: Seattle at Arizona, FOX, 4:30 ET

This game is for the DVOA championship! And both teams still have an incentive to go all-out. Arizona can still be the No. 1 seed if Carolina loses, and Seattle can climb to the fifth seed (and a cushy date against Washington) with a Minnesota loss.

The only reason I've put this game so low is, well, Arizona is just better. They've been better all season. They were better in Seattle earlier this year. Now they've got homefield. While losing Tyrann Mathieu hurts, it might not be enough to swing this game without A-Game Russell Wilson. We did not see A-Game Russell make an appearance last week.

So, without a superlative Wilson game, the Seattle defense will have to completely shut down Arizona. Stranger things have happened, and Carson Palmer does have a history of cataclysmic injuries. But even if Michael Floyd doesn't play, Arizona has a strong, sustaining running game. They've got good receivers hanging around on the bench waiting for an opportunity.

Meanwhile, Seattle is currently giving carries to Christine Michael and Bryce Brown.

Pick: Arizona 28, Seattle 23

Denting All Hopes Game of the Week: Indianapolis at Tennessee, 1 ET (CBS)

— My Colts Account (@MyColtsAccount)December 27, 2015

The Colts still have a chance to make the playoffs! They just need nine non-Colts results to go their way, a lunar eclipse, Chuck Pagano to throw a pizza party without Ryan Grigson's permission, and Roger Goodell seeing the light about concussions. Indy has lost Andrew Luck. They've lost backup quarterback Matt Hasselbeck, and they've lost backup backup Charlie Whitehurst. They are literally about to start Josh Freeman or Ryan Lindley in this game.

Given how Zach Mettenberger performed against the Texans last week, starting a quarterback off the street is like bringing a broken limb to a Walking Dead fight. The Titans can sew up the No. 1 pick if they lose here, but their worst-case scenario at this point is the second pick. Not a huge loss.

And here's another game that will show the problems of the Andrew Luck Colts. Without their quarterback, they're not noticeably better than the Titans, who are about to pick in the top two of the draft.

That'll cost Chuck Pagano his job, but it probably should cost Ryan Grigson his job too.

Pick: Tennessee 17, Indianapolis 16

The Rest of The Tower: New England at Miami, 1 ET (CBS) -- San Diego at Denver, 4:30 ET (CBS) -- Baltimore at Cincinnati, 1 ET (CBS) -- Oakland at Kansas City, 4:30 ET (CBS) -- Tampa Bay at Carolina, 4:30 (FOX)

At the top of the AFC, the Patriots clinch the No. 1 seed with a win. A loss and a Denver win would make the Broncos the No. 1 seed.

The No. 2 seed is a bit more confusing. Denver and Cincinnati are both alive for it. A Denver loss would remove them from the No. 2 seed unless Cincinnati and Kansas City also lose. The Bengals can be the No. 2 seed with a loss, a Denver loss, and a Chiefs win. (This has to do with head-to-head results, as the Bengals beat the Chiefs.) Or, a Denver loss and Cincinnati win would accomplish the same thing.

Kansas City can climb as high as the third seed with a win and a Denver loss. If the Chiefs win, they won't be any lower than No. 5. A loss and a Jets win would put them at No. 6.

The only other game that matters for seeding purposes in the NFC is Carolina's game against the Bucs. A win clinches the No. 1 NFC seed. A loss and a Cardinals win means the Panthers are the No. 2 seed.

The teams I'd project to have tough times dispatching their inferior opponents are Cincinnati and Kansas City. The Bengals might be starting a backup quarterback with a wrist injury, and Baltimore did bite Pittsburgh last week. The Chiefs are on the road against a game quarterback, without their best pass rushers.

Picks: New England 20, Miami 13; San Diego 20, Denver 29; Baltimore 19, Cincinnati 17; Oakland 24, Kansas City 26; Tampa 20, Carolina 27