Fantasy Football Training Camp: Rookies to Watch

Everyone loves shiny new toys. Heck, who wants to play with old toys? We've already seen exactly what old toys can and can't do. But the new stuff? Just imagine what they can be! They might be truly extraordinary to play with! (This tortured metaphor was brought to you by Fisher-Price: "Exposing your kids to lead-based paint for a century!")

And every summer, in fantasy football, we get super psyched for the new toys. The new kids. We dream of huge workloads and springy legs. We see untapped potential and insane draft-day value.

The truth usually winds up being no fun at all. Most first-year players aren't mentally prepared for instant NFL stardom. Sometimes they have a hard time with the attention, but usually they're mistake-prone and difficult for coaches to trust. In 2014, several rookie wide receivers were huge fantasy producers and I started to wonder whether the rules had changed—whether I needed to reassess my skepticism when it comes to rookie hype. But last season restored order. Todd Gurley was even better than advertised and Amari Cooper was pretty good, but the other first-round WRs—Kevin White, DeVante Parker, Nelson Agholor, Breshad Perriman, and Phillip Dorsett—were terrible. David Johnson was an unexpected surprise, but he went undrafted in most leagues. Yes, last year was a splash of cold water for those who rely heavily on first-year players.

But the temptation is still there. We think we can look over the rows of new toys and find the ones that'll be the most fun right away. So it goes. Let's try again in '16. Here are the rookie names you need to know as NFL training camps commence.

Ezekiel Elliott, RB, DAL. He's the big name. There are some folks in the fantasy football world who will tell you Zeke should be the first RB off your draft board. I don't trust the Cowboys to hand Elliott the keys right away, so I'm hedging. But I don't doubt him as a prospect. He's going to be a great one.

Derrick Henry, RB, TEN. Henry has no lateral agility but for a 6'3", 247-pound human his north/south explosiveness is off the charts. He may wind up the biggest home-run hitter in NFL history. However, he landed on a bad offense that already has DeMarco Murray in place, so temper those expectations.

C.J. Prosise, RB, SEA. I'm not 100 percent sold on Prosise as an NFL leading man; he was a one-year collegiate wonder and is a converted receiver. But I warmed to his tape after a few draft-expert friends encouraged me to give him another try, and if Thomas Rawls isn't ready in Seattle, Prosise could get a bunch of work.

Laquon Treadwell, WR, MIN. Draftniks knocked Treadwell for his lack of deep speed, but he's got everything else: size, hands, body control, and leaping ability. Alas, the Vikings feature probably the NFL's least aggressive offense. As a rookie, Treadwell probably won't see elite volume.

Corey Coleman, WR, CLE. Here's another guy my draft-expert friends encouraged me to watch again, and I see what they're excited about. Coleman is more than just another product of a spread Big 12 offense. He's a legit route runner. But with Josh Gordon back and RG3 under center, it's tough to see week-to-week production.

Josh Doctson, WR, WAS. Folks sure did fall in love with Doctson during the draft process. I'm less sure about him. Guys without elite speed and elite strength scare me a little. In D.C., Doctson will battle DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon for looks, as well as an Achilles' that he injured in minicamp.

Sterling Shepard, WR, NYG. Other than Odell Beckham, the Giants don't have much at receiver. Victor Cruz is attempting a comeback, Dwayne Harris is hanging around, but the team seems to be relying on Shepard—who I'm not sure has the speed to be an outside NFL receiver—to play outside a bunch. He should see a ton of targets.

Devontae Booker, RB, DEN. Line up the Broncos running backs and I might take Booker ahead of C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman. He's got great vision and patience, and when he gets going he's a punishing runner. CJA gets first crack here, but I won't be shocked to see Booker work his way into the mix.

Kenneth Dixon, RB, BAL. Heck, line up the Ravens running backs and I might take Dixon. He played at a mid-tier school so it's scary to trust his college tape, but he has the potential to be the kind of all-around back I'm suspicious that Justin Forsett and Buck Allen will never be. Of course, if this is a three-headed monster, it's a mess.

Jordan Howard, RB, CHI. I give Howard credit for producing at Indiana behind a mediocre line playing against better teams. He took dozens of huge hits and kept cranking. But when I look at him as a prospect, I see a one-dimensional banger without great acceleration or wiggle. That said, it's not like Jeremy Langford is a sure thing.

Will Fuller, WR, HOU. Fuller is the walking-around reincarnation of Ted Ginn (who, to be fair, isn't actually dead). He's got rare top-end speed and will make a few huge plays this season, but he suffered concentration lapses galore in college and made way too many drops. The Texans need complementary receivers, but ones who can catch.

Leonte Carroo, WR, MIA. Carroo reminds me of fellow Rutgers product Mohamed Sanu. Neither wows you with athleticism and neither should be a featured player, but they're both blood-and-guts reliable types who'll help you in a ton of ways and usually not make mistakes. That's a good quality for a rookie.

Michael Thomas, WR, NO. Thomas could slide into the Saints slot role that Marques Colston occupied for a decade, but he'll have veteran competition from Brandon Coleman, plus Coby Fleener is a catch-only tight end who could also fill that spot. The reality is that Drew Brees hasn't made a rookie WR a fantasy starter since Colston in '06.

Tyler Boyd, WR, CIN. Boyd reminds me of Jarvis Landry: he's got polish but not great physicality or quickness, and so figures to be hard-pressed to line up on the outside against the NFL's bigger corners, at least at first. But in Cincy they've got a couple WR openings, and Boyd could make some hay as a PPR slot-receiver weapon.

Kenyan Drake, RB, MIA. If Arian Foster gets hurt (should I have said "when"?), Drake figures to slot behind Jay Ajayi. He catches it well and is dangerous in the open field, which is a good skill for a 6'1" 210-pounder to have. But Drake was injury-prone in college and already suffered a hamstring injury in minicamp.

Wendell Smallwood, RB, PHI. Do you trust Ryan Mathews to handle a full workload without getting hurt? Me neither. Smallwood has a chance to be Mathews' understudy. He's coming from the spread-'em-out Big 12 and probably has a long way to go in pass protection. But he's intriguing.

Paul Perkins, RB, NYG. Perkins joins the NFL's most crowded backfield in Gotham, and will scuffle with Brandon Jacobs, Shane Vereen, and Andre Williams to see work. My evaluation of Perkins is that he's perhaps a slightly more physical version of Vereen, and so would have potential value if the veteran Vereen were released.

DeAndre Washington, RB, OAK. Having already released Roy Helu, the Raiders appear set to enter the '16 campaign with Washington backing up Latavius Murray. Washington is another guy whose college tape is tough to trust because of the Big 12 factor, but he could be a fine pass-catching complement.

Jared Goff, QB, LA; Paxton Lynch, QB, DEN; Carson Wentz, QB, PHI. You'll note that I've omitted the rookie QBs until now. That's because you don't want to own a rookie QB in fantasy most years. They suffer through growing pains and make too many mistakes. Even last season, when Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota were rightly touted as more elite prospects, staying away was good policy. And the QB Class of '16 figures to go down as one of the weakest in memory. No.

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