Rex Ryan and the Buffalo Bills Defense: Win or Go Home

We are now deep in the NFL off-season, a land of low consequences and unlimited goofy non-news. Look around and you will see familiar off-season sights. Random practice-squad receivers are getting hyped. Kicker and punt returner battles are raging between barely padded players. And Rex Ryan is talking. A lot.

"We've won the off-season," Ryan told reporters at the Buffalo Bills' minicamp last week. He seemed to anticipate the backlash that would follow when he later said, "That is one I shouldn't say because they are going to kill me anyway, but we are on vacation no one is going to read it anyway." At first glance, Ryan's words might appear to be so much Rex-ian chest-puffing. Just the previous week, Jim Kelly, the former Bills quarterback, told "The Jim Rome Show" that if the Bills don't make the playoffs this year, Ryan's second as head coach in Buffalo, "I think Rex will probably be looking for another job. I think everybody knows that, including Rex."

Ryan appeared to shrug off Kelly's comments, but he already received the ultimatum from Bills owner Terry Pegula after his team went 8-8 last season: you have one year; win, or you're fired. (The same applies to GM Doug Whaley.)

Ryan has hired his fraternal twin, Rob, to helm the defense in Buffalo this year. The Ryan Brothers like playing physical and loose, a formula that will be familiar to any football fan. It will be especially familiar if you watch a lot of college football, where teams like Alabama can win solely based on it. The insinuation is that Ryan's defense will be better now that the remnants of former defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz's system are gone—which is interesting, because Schwartz's system didn't seem too bad in 2014, when the Bills finished first in Adjusted Sack Rate. Last season, when Ryan took over as head coach, they dropped to 31st.

Ryan has said that he didn't run his defense 100 percent that year. "I screwed up, and that's totally on me," he told MMQB's Jenny Vrentas in a recent interview. "But just go back and look at the history. You are going to get the real deal this year, and we'll see how it goes."

The simple truth, though, is that 2015 isn't a one-year blip for Ryan. Despite his reputation as one of the NFL's foremost defensive minds, Ryan's Jets struggled mightily at pass defense for the last couple years of his tenure in New York, too:

How will the Ryans turn things around in Buffalo? The Bills couldn't spend a lot of money on their defense this off-season. Retaining offensive linemen Cordy Glenn and Richie Incognito was about the only thing they had the cap space to do, and they had to cut ties with Mario Williams just to get there.

So they invested heavily on defense in the draft instead. With the 19th overall pick, Buffalo selected former Clemson defensive end Shaq Lawson, who had fallen down the boards because of concerns about his shoulder. Sure enough, last month Lawson had surgery that will probably put him on the PUP list, if not IR-designated to return.

The incredible thing is, even with that hit, the Bills are still able to field a pretty formidable defense, at least on paper. Second-round linebacker Reggie Ragland comes off a fine career at Alabama to bring that thumping enforcement Ryan desires. ("Reggie Ragland is the most physical linebacker in the draft," Ryan told MMQB. "That was a Ryan defensive player, a linebacker, going back to the days of when our dad was coaching the Bears, and even before that.")

If you believe Ragland can be a true pass-coverage linebacker—and there are definitely believers out there—the Bills potentially have two good cover linebackers between Ragland and Preston Brown. Even after flipping Williams, Buffalo has Marcell Dareus, Kyle Williams, and Jerry Hughes on the defensive line. They won't have an easy solution for Lawson's injury early—there's not much depth at end—but plenty of teams would kill to have that much talent in the front four.

In the secondary, Stephon Gilmore and Ronald Darby are talented enough to both press and limit a receiver early in the route, which is what Ryan demands of his corners. Sterling Moore could be an upgrade on last season's nickel back, and Aaron Williams and Corey Graham are both capable safeties.

Up and down the defensive roster, there are minor flaws. Buffalo could use more pass rushers, and it'd be nice if Manny Lawson were more of a run-stuffer, but it's hard to come up with reasons that the Bills defense should be bad. They underachieved remarkably last season but, at least on paper, they should perform this year.

Are they actually going to get there? The answer to that question could shape the AFC East. Had the Bills kept up Schwartz's 2014 defensive numbers in 2015, they would have been an easy playoff team. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor and offensive coordinator Greg Roman have made some great things happen despite not having much in the way of receiving talent beyond Sammy Watkins.

So what's the issue? I think it boils down to whether you believe Ryan's system has been left in the dust by the current NFL. Aggressive cornerback play is one thing, but Ryan hasn't been able to actually get to the quarterback fast enough to pay off all the bumping he has his corners do. Spending three of the past four years in the bottom 20 in Adjusted Sack Rate, especially with last year's Bills squad, speaks volumes about his approach to the pass rush, and that has to be the No. 1 concern for the Bills this season. It's the pass rush, not some Ryan-approved virtue like toughness, that will get Bills to the playoffs in 2016. And if Ryan can't draw up the right way to make it happen with this unit, he won't be able to talk his way out of what happens next.

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