NFL Running Backs Have Never Been Less Valuable

The Houston Texans' Lamar Miller is one of the last of a dying breed: the workhorse running back.

Miller's 106-yard Texans debut made him the only NFL tailback to crack the century mark this week, pending Monday Night Football's results. If that holds, it'll be the first time that's happened since at least the 1970 AFL/NFL merger. Moreover, he did it in a distinctly old-school way: with a heavy diet of 28 carries, and no run longer than 12 yards. Miller kept the offense on schedule; the Texans were able to convert 60 percent of their third-down opportunities.

But Miller's 3.8 yards-per-attempt average can't compare to the 6.6 yards quarterback Brock Osweiler averaged with each pass he threw. As modern schemes keep interceptions historically low, the forward pass seems to have unlimited upside, and there's far less incentive to turn it down. After nearly a century of professional football, coaches have finally figured out how to divide.

It's not just that teams are passing more often, though; the specialization and multiplicity of the modern pass offense also has carried over into the run game.

Only five running backs—Miller, LeGarrette Blount, Matt Forte, Ryan Matthews, and T.J. Yeldon—had more than twenty carries this week, but 28 had at least ten. A whopping 61 running backs had at least one pass thrown their way, per Pro Football Reference, and 49 had at least one carry and one catch. Twenty-nine running backs had at least five carries with five or fewer pass targets, while six were thrown to at least five times but had no more than five carries.

This, along with notable breakout performances by second- and third-round picks, has led to the idea that teams can get star-tailback production without investing in standout talent. But it's not the source of production that's changing, necessarily; it's that the star tailback itself is going extinct.

Only five tailbacks carried the ball over 250 times in 2015, compared to 17 a decade earlier. Between running for consistency, running for long gains, catching the ball, and pass-protection, there are just too many players who excel in any one area to keep them all on the bench—and too few players who are so good at everything that they can't be taken off the field.

This is why many pundits said Ezekiel Elliott couldn't possibly be worth the No. 4 overall pick: no matter how good he is, he can't be good enough at everything to justify hoarding all the snaps to himself. Though he'll certainly have better outings than his debut against the Giants (20 carries for 51 yards, one catch for one yard), modern NFL coaches are too smart to give the game away trying to "establish the run" or "get into a rhythm"—they'll give the carries to someone else, or abandon the run altogether.

As important as it was for the Texans that Miller bring balance to their offense, he had been signed off the street when his previous team let him walk in free agency. As Pro Football Focus pointed out seven months ago, Miller's underwhelming elusiveness and after-contact production made him eminently replaceable. Even after yesterday's historic performance, PFF had Miller as their lowest-rated tailback of the week.

It's not that they don't make 'em like Miller anymore; it's that coaches don't use them like Miller anymore—for good reason.