Oakland Raiders Versus the Wet Blanket of Regression

After years of paper-thin rosters forced by slash-and-burn, win-now policies early in the 2010s, the Oakland Raiders are finally on the rise again. They were one of my free agency winners, and with the Denver Broncos projected to—gulp—start Mark Sanchez at quarterback, someone has to fill the excitement gap. Derek Carr turned in a very good sophomore season. The defense, which had some problems against the pass last year, should fare better, at least on paper. CBS's Jason La Canfora believes the Raiders are a legitimate threat to host a playoff game, and I can't say I disagree.

However, it's NFL off-season and I am a writer that looks at statistics. Prepare yourselves: it's time to throw the wet blanket of regression on this team.

Fourteen different teams have improved by 20 percent in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric after two seasons in a row with a -20 percent or worse score. Two of them were Oakland and Washington last season.

What jumps out at you from that list? The cautionary tales outnumber the success stories. The 2010 Raiders were thought to be turning a corner, for example, but at that point they had no real young talent. Baby's first steps toward relevancy do not always lead to being a true contender, even if a team has come a long way.

On the other side of the coin, the Seattle Seahawks launched a successful dynasty with a bevy of draft picks; their franchise quarterback, like Carr, had been passed over by every team with a first-round pick. The dream scenario for any franchise would be to wind up with a setup like the Seahawks have now.

But the team that reminds me the most of where the Raiders are now is the 2010 Rams. It's hard to believe this in retrospect, but the Rams actually had a very exciting season that year. They were surprisingly competitive despite roster constraints, and finished 7-9. Rookie Sam Bradford keyed a comeback that took the team right to the precipice of the playoffs, Chris Long took his step forward a la Khalil Mack, and everyone thought those would be the two building blocks of the future. The Rams went 2-14 in 2011.

Now, I don't think the Raiders are headed for a similarly steep stumble to the bottom. No team with as much talent as this one has accumulated should just out-and-out disappear from contention. On paper, what they have accomplished is worth being excited about. They've surrounded Derek Carr with an awesome offensive line that should allow him play to his strengths. Corner Sean Smith, safety Reggie Nelson, and 2016 first-round pick Karl Joseph give the Raiders a better secondary than they've had in years.

But, as long as we admit regression is a real thing, we have to be open to the possibility that it could happen with the Raiders. Carr still needs to be managed, middle linebacker is still a question mark, and none of the third receiver candidates jump out and demand to be noticed. Bruce Irvin and second-round pick Jihad Ward hypothetically bring more pass rush, but Irvin's hybrid role didn't always yield results. Corner David Amerson is one year removed from being a complete washout in Washington.

Could we nitpick other teams in the same way? Sure! Why does it matter with Oakland more? Because massive improvements aren't always followed by more massive improvements. There are as many reasons to believe this team is in for a consolidation year as there are to think they'll suddenly leap into the playoffs.

The Oakland rebuild should be celebrated. The Raiders have come a long way, and general manager Reggie McKenzie has done terrific work in taking an orphaned franchise and turning it into a team with legitimate playoff aspirations. History tells us, however, that it might take another year before those aspirations are realized.

Want to read more stories like this from VICE Sports? Subscribe to our daily newsletter.