The NBA Finals Could Come Down to Andre Iguodala, Again

It's not at all a stretch to say that during the last two NBA Finals series, no player has been more important to the Golden State Warriors' success than Andre Iguodala.

Iguodala was—if you subscribe to the maxim that the Finals MVP must come from the winning team—deservedly named Finals MVP in 2015, when he averaged 16.3 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 1.3 steals per game while shooting 52 percent from the field and 40 percent from three. The defining image of that series was Iguodala locked in stasis on the left block with LeBron James, the shot clock ticking down and no help anywhere in sight. His work in that situation, as well as his Game 4 insertion into the starting lineup, swung the series, and the championship, to Golden State.

Iguodala was marvelous again during the first four games of the 2016 Finals, averaging 10-5-4 while shooting 50 percent from the field and 38 percent from three. He was even better in Game 5 (15-11-6 in 41 minutes), which Draymond Green sat out because he had the bright idea to punch James in the nuts a game earlier. Iggy's defense against James once again made things just a little bit more difficult for the best player in the world, and had the Warriors pulled out a victory that night, Iguodala might have been named Finals MVP yet again. Alas, they fell short, and Iguodala's back injury early in the next game helped hasten their spiral.

A year later, the Warriors and Cavs are back for Part III, and Iguodala once again figures to play a central role.

Iguodala is not the Warriors' best player. He's not their best shooter, nor their best passer; he's not even their best defender. He's their Swiss Army knife, the guy they can throw on the floor with any combination of players and trust to fill in whatever blanks are left open. Sometimes he's a three-and-D guy, sometimes a playmaker, and sometimes merely a shutdown defender. Whatever the Warriors need, he provides—so long as he's healthy.

Right now, we don't really know if that's the case.

Iguodala has been dealing with a balky knee for a few weeks now, missing much of Game 1 and all of Game 2 during the Western Conference Finals, and his performance during Golden State's romp through the rest of the playoffs was not up to his usual standards. He hasn't shouldered as large a minute load as in years past (25 per game this season, as opposed to 30 and 32 during the last two Finals runs). He also made just three of his 27 three-point attempts during first three rounds—even though 26 of those tries were categorized by NBA.com as "open" or "wide-open," meaning the closest defender was at least four feet away. Shooting 11.5 percent from beyond the arc: not good! He was 20 of 54 (37.0 percent) on similar shots during last year's playoffs and 27 of 72 (37.5 percent) the year before that.

While Iguodala is reportedly getting back to full strength, the Cavaliers are no doubt aware of his performance thus far and will adjust their defense accordingly. Even more than usual, they will want to make sure that a healthy heaping of Warriors possessions end with a shot taken by Iguodala. Letting Stephen Curry or Kevin Durant shoot is the least desirable result, followed closely by Klay Thompson. The Cavs would rather Draymond Green shoot than pass, but if he passes, they'd prefer he find Iguodala for a jumper rather than, say, JaVale McGee for a lob dunk. If Iguodala suddenly gets back to knocking down his open triples, this will be a very short series. If he continues clanging them off the rim, things will get a little more interesting.

Iguodala, of course, still provides value outside of his jumper. He's a good passer, a smart cutter, and the most versatile defender on the team after Green. The Warriors are going to need him to log big minutes during this series, and to tangle with James for most of the time he's on the floor. There's no tougher task in the league, but arguably nobody is more up to it than Iguodala when he's at his best.

The Dubs will switch if they must. They know that Green, Durant, Thompson, and even Shaun Livingston can competently handle the James matchup for a few seconds (or more) and try to force him into uncomfortable looks, but none are likely to do as good a solo job as Iguodala. If he's not right, that's a big issue—especially if the Warriors want to go to their Death Lineup as often as possible in order to play Tristan Thompson, Kevin Love, or both off the floor.

A version of Iguodala who can't handle guarding James provides significantly less value to the Warriors, to the point where they might even be forced into trying other configurations. Slotting Livingston into Iguodala's spot gives them an extra ball-handler and a strong option in the post, but at the cost of some defensive flexibility. He also does even less for the Warriors' floor spacing than Iguodala.

Ian Clark would loosen up the defense by getting yet another shooter on the floor, but it's unclear how he'd fit in defensively against this Cleveland team if he shares the court with both Curry and Thompson, especially if the Cavs decide to stay big. Patrick McCaw is another option, but he's a rookie who weighs approximately 17 pounds and Mike Brown may not want to throw him to the wolves with the team's most important unit. Any of these subs likely shifts either Durant or Thompson into the James matchup on defense, draining energy that could be better spent on the other end of the floor.

Golden State's best option if Iguodala isn't up to the task might be sticking with more traditional units, using whoever has it going out of Zaza Pachulia, JaVale McGee, or David West during crunch time. Doing so, however, allows the Cavs to stay big with both Love and Thompson on the floor together, and to press their advantage on the boards. Cleveland can and likely will try to stick with those units against the Death Lineup as a first option, but when that group is really humming, doing so becomes nearly untenable.

There's a reason the Warriors see their greatest success against Cleveland when they go small: the area of the floor they force the Cavs to guard is simply too large when they space it the way they can at their best. And to be at their best, Golden State almost certainly needs Iguodala to be at his.

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