Mousasi's Make-or-Break Battle in The Big Smoke

Rewind to the year 2010. Gegard Mousasi is the Strikeforce light heavyweight champion, and owns a fantastic overall record of 28-2-1—all at just 24-years-old. He is considered one of the best fighters outside the UFC, and a dream matchup for the UFC's best light heavyweights, from Lyoto Machida, to Mauricio "Shogun" Rua, to Jon Jones.

Eventually, of course, Mousasi's hype would be dealt a bit of a blow when he was defeated by Muhammed "King Mo" Lawal. Yet by the time he joined the UFC in 2013, he still possessed a fantastic 33-3-2 overall record, and also owned the DREAM light heavyweight strap. Despite his earlier slip against King Mo, many still believed he would quickly find himself challenging for UFC gold.

Unfortunately for Mousasi and his fans, this is far from the way things unfolded. It's now 2016, and despite dropping to middleweight where he'd be at less of a size disadvantage, the former Strikeforce and DREAM king hasn't come anywhere near UFC gold, having been jarred by losses whenever he seemed to be getting close.

First, he lost a decision to Lyoto Machida in a fairly forgettable fight. Next, he was submitted in a rematch with Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza. And finally, in his most recent fight, he had a two-fight win-streak snapped by a shocking knockout loss to an underdog Uriah Hall. Sure, Mousasi interspersed these losses with wins over Mark Munoz, Costas Philippou, and Dan Henderson, but both Munoz and Philippou have since retired, and anyone with any concern for Henderson's wellbeing believes he should have done the same years ago. Yes, wins are wins, but Mousasi's UFC wins have come against fading competition, and have unfortunately been overshadowed by his disappointing losses in the organization. Now 37-6-2, he is a far cry from the fighter who entered the UFC in 2013, let alone the one who held Strikeforce gold in 2010.

Of course, at 30-years-old, Mousasi is still comparatively young. He's got some serious work to do if he hopes to regain his former standing, but such an outcome is certainly not impossible. His next step to that end will take place this Saturday, when the UFC touches down in London, England. There, he'll take on resurgent veteran Thales Leites in the evening's co-main event.

At the time of this writing, odds-makers have Mousasi pegged as a sizable betting favorite at around -330. Despite his shocking loss to Hall in his last outing, the dominant opinion seems to be that the former Strikeforce king will return to his winning ways in The Big Smoke.

That said, it's hard to put too much stock in Mousasi's status as the favorite. Not only does his notorious reluctance to take his training seriously render him a question mark every time he steps into the Octagon, but lately, he's also shown himself to be quite beatable. Leites, meanwhile, has shown himself to be far more capable than his 2009 losses to Anderson Silva and Alessio Sakara (and resulting UFC release) led us to believe.

Granted, Leites isn't quite as fearsome on the ground as Jacare, but he's certainly capable of finding Mousasi's neck, just like Jacare did in 2014. And while Leites is far from the striker that Uriah Hall is, he does have power, so it's not outside the realm of possibility that Mousasi will be caught off guard on the feet either. To clarify, the former Strikeforce king might well lose in London.

At this stage, such an outcome would be terrible for Mousasi. Not only would it mark the first two-fight losing-streak of his long career, but it'd also reduce his UFC record to the .500 mark at 4-4… hardly the numbers of a title contender. Indeed, if Mousasi comes up short in London, he may find himself at the point of no return. Is he likely to be cut from the UFC with a loss? Probably not, but the high hopes with which he entered the organization in 2013 will likely dissipate once and for all.

Of course, the odds identify him as a favorite for a reason. For all Leites' strengths, Mousasi is a savvy veteran who, even in the midst of this shaky stretch, is capable of ending a fight from a staggering breadth of positions. Just as he could leave London with a new and ugly loss, he could also leave the city with a revivifying win. All that's clear in advance of his co-main event fight, however, is that his failing to produce a win would be absolutely disastrous for his career. Hopefully that means we'll see a focused and ferocious Gegard Mousasi in London this Saturday.