Hobbled by injuries and saddled with bad luck, Joe Flacco and the Baltimore Ravens didn't make the playoffs. Now they have another puzzle to figure out this offseason: cap space.
There are two main reasons that NFL teams fail to earn a playoff spot: injuries and on-field variance. The Ravens had the misfortune of experiencing both of these in 2015. Often.On the field, Baltimore lost a game to Jacksonville because of an incorrect call. They arguably lost 14 points because of officiating against Arizona. The Ravens finished 17th in total DVOA, with 7.5 estimated wins. They had just five actual wins.
Baltimore accumulated IR victims as frequently as Donald Trump takes horrifying public stances. Name an important player, the Ravens put him on IR in 2015. Joe Flacco. Justin Forsett. Steve Smith. Sr. Breshad Perriman. Crockett Gilmore. Eugene Monroe. Terrell Suggs. Baltimore didn't just get dinged in pure numbers; it lost almost all its most important players at some point this season.This was horrible for the team to suffer through in 2015. In 2016, with a healthy Flacco and a high draft pick? The playoffs are in reach.
When you're not sure whether Joe Flacco is elite. Photo by Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Coach and Quarterback Confidence Rating: 7/10Flacco's season was a bust. Perhaps Gary Kubiak raised hopes too high in 2014, but it was startling how stark the difference was in 2015. It's difficult to divvy up the blame proportionately: Was it offensive coordinator Marc Trestman? Flacco? A receiving corps that played dead most of the season? I would like to think that Flacco has more in him than he showed last season, though. Even if you don't believe he's "elite," he's not a bad quarterback,What can you say about John Harbaugh? He is Jim Harbaugh's brother. He coached a team to the Super Bowl. He played his brother in that Super Bowl. Jim Harbaugh and John Harbaugh are related.
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In all seriousness, Harbaugh can be a little grating about officiating, but he had some fair points last season. He's well regarded around the league. Some of the teams seeking new head coaches decided to get his denial before they moved on. He's not the golden goose that his brother is, but John doesn't have glaring weaknesses, either.Key Offseason Decision: What to do with Joe Flacco's contract?It's been speculated—even at the time it was signed— that Joe Flacco and the Ravens would renegotiate his contract before the 2016 season.
This season, the cap figures escalate from big to unreasonable. Flacco's currently slated to have a $28.8 million cap figure in 2016. That would be the third highest in the NFL, behind only Drew Brees and Ndamukong Suh.So let's assume that a Flacco extension or restructuring will happen. Just how much space is he willing to give up? He's coming off a torn ACL. His 2015 season was ghastly when he actually was on the field. Releasing him saves the Ravens only $2.7 million or so.The answer to this question dictates much of how the rest of Baltimore's offseason will play out. Even if they free up $10 million in cap space from restructuring Flacco, that signs up their rookie class and not much more. Baltimore doesn't have many other easy paths to cap space. The most they can clear up from a single player is $3.5 million from Lardarius Webb. The Ravens could batch a lot of similar deals together, but what could they even get with the extra money to replace all the players walking at that point?
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That's why Flacco's contract is at the core of Baltimore's offseason plans: it's going to control much of their future.Major Free Agents: LG Kelechi Osemele, K Justin Tucker, QB Matt Schaub, OLB Courtney UpshawBaltimore isn't exactly losing anyone irreplaceable here, but Osemele has flashed greatness. His improvement inside was a big reason that the Ravens won the Super Bowl, but he spent most of last season banged up: Achilles injury in the preseason, back and knee during the regular season. He's worth big money on paper, but he's also played only 35 of the last 48 possible regular season games. Durability is a skill to NFL general managers.Tucker is one of the NFL's best kickers. Considering the Ravens found him as a UDFA, and they're up against the cap, they'd be wise to just try and find the next version of him.Upshaw is a fine run-stuffer but offers little pass rush. The Ravens willingly started Ryan Mallett over Schaub the last few weeks of the season.Cap Situation: $3,744,966—29th in the NFLTo put this into perspective, the Ravens are slated to pick sixth in the NFL Draft. Last year's sixth overall pick, Leonard Williams, had a cap figure of $3.387 million. The Ravens are so far up against the cap that they aren't even able to sign their rookie class yet.I can see a player or two getting the axe even with a Flacco extension. Webb makes sense—he's simply not played at the same level since he tore his ACL in 2012. Defensive lineman Chris Canty and linebacker Daryl Smith could also get the axe to save about $5 million. Finally, if they're willing to go to post-June 1 cuts, lopping perpetually injured tight end Dennis Pitta would save $5 million. (They could save a bit more on players like Webb and Canty with that tactic, too.)Unfortunately for the Ravens, their salary cap is paying most players like it's 2012. Injuries and ineffectiveness have stifled a lot of those core players since then. The bets that they've made on that cap space are coming home to roost.Baltimore isn't going to be a major player in free agency this offseason. They'll just be trying to keep the good pieces they have.
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This season, the cap figures escalate from big to unreasonable. Flacco's currently slated to have a $28.8 million cap figure in 2016. That would be the third highest in the NFL, behind only Drew Brees and Ndamukong Suh.So let's assume that a Flacco extension or restructuring will happen. Just how much space is he willing to give up? He's coming off a torn ACL. His 2015 season was ghastly when he actually was on the field. Releasing him saves the Ravens only $2.7 million or so.The answer to this question dictates much of how the rest of Baltimore's offseason will play out. Even if they free up $10 million in cap space from restructuring Flacco, that signs up their rookie class and not much more. Baltimore doesn't have many other easy paths to cap space. The most they can clear up from a single player is $3.5 million from Lardarius Webb. The Ravens could batch a lot of similar deals together, but what could they even get with the extra money to replace all the players walking at that point?That's why Flacco's contract is at the core of Baltimore's offseason plans: it's going to control much of their future.Major Free Agents: LG Kelechi Osemele, K Justin Tucker, QB Matt Schaub, OLB Courtney UpshawBaltimore isn't exactly losing anyone irreplaceable here, but Osemele has flashed greatness. His improvement inside was a big reason that the Ravens won the Super Bowl, but he spent most of last season banged up: Achilles injury in the preseason, back and knee during the regular season. He's worth big money on paper, but he's also played only 35 of the last 48 possible regular season games. Durability is a skill to NFL general managers.Tucker is one of the NFL's best kickers. Considering the Ravens found him as a UDFA, and they're up against the cap, they'd be wise to just try and find the next version of him.Upshaw is a fine run-stuffer but offers little pass rush. The Ravens willingly started Ryan Mallett over Schaub the last few weeks of the season.Cap Situation: $3,744,966—29th in the NFLTo put this into perspective, the Ravens are slated to pick sixth in the NFL Draft. Last year's sixth overall pick, Leonard Williams, had a cap figure of $3.387 million. The Ravens are so far up against the cap that they aren't even able to sign their rookie class yet.I can see a player or two getting the axe even with a Flacco extension. Webb makes sense—he's simply not played at the same level since he tore his ACL in 2012. Defensive lineman Chris Canty and linebacker Daryl Smith could also get the axe to save about $5 million. Finally, if they're willing to go to post-June 1 cuts, lopping perpetually injured tight end Dennis Pitta would save $5 million. (They could save a bit more on players like Webb and Canty with that tactic, too.)Unfortunately for the Ravens, their salary cap is paying most players like it's 2012. Injuries and ineffectiveness have stifled a lot of those core players since then. The bets that they've made on that cap space are coming home to roost.Baltimore isn't going to be a major player in free agency this offseason. They'll just be trying to keep the good pieces they have.