The Pacers' Identity Crisis Might Keep Them from the Playoffs

The 2016-17 Indiana Pacers will seduce you. Conventional wisdom suggests they're a lock to make the playoffs, and Las Vegas has them slotted in the top half of a conference that's riddled with question marks.

On the surface this makes sense. Indiana's collection of talent is recognizable and fresh: Paul George is one of the world's ten best players; Thaddeus Young is a thoroughbred in the right system; Jeff Teague was an All-Star two years ago, and helped shepherd the Atlanta Hawks to 60 wins without anyone as talented as George by his side; Myles Turner is the 20-year-old starting center who appears ready to take over the world, and Al Jefferson is, in a vacuum, one of the better offensive backup centers in the league.

That's all wonderful, but individual skill only goes so far when mashed together in a situation that doesn't make sense. Indiana is currently one such situation, and the reasons to believe the Pacers will stumble and crash outweigh George's condor arms or Turner suddenly installing himself as one of the Eastern Conference's five best centers.

Last season's Pacers were built to pulverize the opposition with sheer strength and towering height. They were a weight-room bully that had one of the league's stingiest defenses. George Hill bothered primary ball-handlers at both guard positions while Ian Mahinmi protected the back line and provided a bit more flexibility covering pick-and-rolls. Thanks largely to that defense—and despite finishing tenth in pace and seventh in transition offense—Indiana made the playoffs after a 45-win season and nearly upset the 56-win Toronto Raptors in the first round.

Then they immediately suffered an identity crisis. Frank Vogel, one of the league's brightest head coaches, was supplanted by his assistant Nate McMillan, who won one playoff series in 12 years as head coach of the Seattle Supersonics and the Portland Trail Blazers. The roster, meanwhile, has shed its skin. The Pacers acquired Teague and Young in the off-season so they could go lean, a tricky overnight change in personnel that doubles as a complete philosophical shift. This isn't easy to pull off, and partially explains why some statistical projections aren't smiling in their direction.

So what, exactly, is wrong with the Pacers now? Let's start with their total lack of shooting. Like most superstars, George is at his best gliding through open driving lanes, or isolating without fear of an immediate double team. Making him comfortable and allowing him to be his most efficient self should've been the priority when constructing this roster. Instead, Indiana mainly focused on speed and how they'd look in the open floor. This vision made sense, since the Pacers had one of the least effective offenses in the league last year, but its execution was all wrong.

Teague's catch-and-shoot numbers beyond the arc have risen steadily over the past few years. He made a career-high 40 percent of his threes with the Atlanta Hawks last season. But defenders are happy whenever he lets it fly, particularly off the dribble—they still, to this day, go under ball screens to cut off drives and provoke inefficient pull-up shots.

Young is a career 32.1 percent outside shooter who has never been a spot-up threat and only attempted 30 threes last season (he's already launched six this year). Here are Monta Ellis' three-point averages since he left the Golden State Warriors: 26.7, 28.7, 33.0, 28.5, 30.9, and 33.3 percent. Rodney Stuckey is sub-30 percent in his ten-year career. Turner, Glenn Robinson III, and Joe Young are unproven and unknown contributors.

It's early, but only three teams have a lower three-point rate than the Pacers this season. Just look at how hard George needs to work, and how little space he has to make magic happen, when hunting for his own shots in the half-court.

This problem doesn't only affect George. Defenses will be fine aggressively digging in the post or sending hard double teams whenever Jefferson, Young, or Turner try to make something happen with their back to the basket.

If you think Indiana can ignore these issues by using its speed to attack back-pedaling defenses, think again. Transition points are the result of defensive stops, and the defensive talents that got the Pacers to the playoffs last season are no longer there. George is an above-average defender at his position, and Turner might get there at some point down the line, but Teague, Ellis, Young, and Jefferson range from "decent on the right night" to "entirely useless." Watch how J.J. Barea and Dirk Nowitzki bludgeon them to death in the pick-and-roll. Jefferson treats Dwight Powell like he's Wilt Chamberlain after Ellis makes no commitment at the point of attack and escorts Barea to the basket:

It's a problem that won't fix itself overnight. Ellis and Jefferson are either physically incapable or mentally unwilling to provide quality defense on a regular basis.

To be fair, Barea and Nowitzki bludgeon everyone to death in the pick-and-roll, but the Pacers are still allowing an abysmal 110 points per 100 possessions through their first three games. According to Inpredictable, their offense is really bad after an opponent's made shot and pretty good after they secure a defensive rebound or force a turnover.

It's obviously early, but Indiana's roster provides zero short- or long-term solutions. Ian Mahinmi, George Hill, and Solomon Hill aren't walking through that door. They were three smart, reliable, versatile defenders who helped the Pacers boast a top-three unit last season. Now they're gone.

George is the Pacers' savior and safety blanket—a perennial All-NBA member who's also the second-best player in the conference—but not even he has the omnipresence to mask all the two-way cracks Indiana shows. Who else can guard multiple positions with any level of competence? Who can draw fouls and sink outside shots? In three games, the Pacers have been outscored by 36.3 points per 100 possessions in George's 46 minutes of rest. Their offense goes from a scintillating 109.2 points per 100 possessions to 85.3.

Again, it's early, but warning signs have already become a reality. If they make the playoffs, George deserves serious MVP consideration. If they don't, one of the league's very best players may jump ship as soon as he can.

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