Surveying the Favorites for the 2016 Masters

What to weigh, eh?

There's current form, past history, personal experience at the venue, performances in other major championships, and perhaps even productivity with certain pivotal clubs in hand.

It helps that, when it comes to predicting Masters winners, eight months have passed since the last major championship, leaving plenty of time to put player names in a blender and punch puree.

While this week's Masters is viewed as more competitively wide open than in the past, when favorites like Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson were seemingly trading the green jacket in alternate years, a few predictable names are getting most of the love in Las Vegas and on the online gaming portals.

Here's why you should think twice about taking the most-obvious path to payday glory when filling out your office pool.

Is it too late to draft Tom Watson?

The top 20 'hottest' golfers going into — Nosferatu (@VC606)April 5, 2016

Aussie, Aussie, Aussie, oy, oy, vey

Jason Day, Australia

Day has become a latter-day Tiger Woods, in that his maladies and medical issues seem to have become a far-too-prominent part of the weekly storyline. The world No. 1 won his last two PGA Tour starts, but battled an ailing back for the final days of March. Last year at the U.S. Open, he fought vertigo, and earlier this spring, illness left him bedridden during the West Coast Swing. So, while he's seriously contended at the Masters in both 2011 and 2013—right into the final minutes—the bigger question is whether the reigning PGA Championship winner will still be in one piece on Sunday. "I feel comfortable where I'm at, walking around the grounds at world No. 1," he said Tuesday. "I do feel good with how I'm playing and where I'm at mentally and physically." He's been in Augusta since last Friday, prepping for a tournament in which he has every required asset in his toolbox. "To be honest, I don't think I'm the favorite this week," Day said Tuesday. Uh, you don't get to vote, mate. Day has six PGA Tour wins since last July, four more than any other player. After enduring an admittedly thin resume as far as wins, he sits atop the world rankings. The only guy who can stop Day might be his chiropractor.

Reason No. 1,912 Jason Day is the fave this week. — Steve Elling (@EllingYelling)April 5, 2016

Masters field in trouble as Bubba seeks treble?

Bubba Watson

A two-time Masters winner, Watson won at L.A.'s storied Riviera Country Club a few weeks back, another timeless and parkland-style venue, and his play at Augusta over the recent past is second to none. Watson has been battling a sinus issue this week, but after skipping practice Monday, when he claimed he was vomiting and being treated by a doctor, he was back on the course and practicing. Watson is ranked No. 4 in the world, and for those who love omens, that's great karma. Over the past decade, the player who entered Masters week ranked fourth globally won the tournament (Phil Mickelson in 2006, Jordan Spieth last year). Only three players have amassed more world-ranking points in 2016 than Watson, and none of them are multiple major winners. The notoriously temperamental Watson this week began selling his own caricatured emojis, and hopefully he won't need this one, conjured up by a golf fan:

When — Tweeter Alliss (@TweeterAlliss)April 5, 2016

Picking Snedeker is a case of puppy love

Brandt Snedeker, United States

Easily overlooked, the ever-affable 35-year-old is nonetheless playing at his professional peak. A year after his career was derailed for several months following a fall from a Segway, the Nashville native has no loose wheels. Snedeker finished in the top three in his first three starts of 2016 and has sniffed a chance on the back nine at Augusta in the past, where his ultra-smooth putting stroke is his greatest asset. He has seven top-10 finishes in the majors, including two at Augusta, but has come unspooled at the wrong time in the past. Sports Illustrated colorfully characterized him thusly: "Snedeker is a cold-blooded killer who fools folks by having the personality of a Labrador retriever … and the same haircut."

Anchors aweigh, you scurvy dogs

Adam Scott, Australia

Scott blowtorched the Florida Swing, winning at the Honda and Doral events and proving that he'll survive despite the Jan. 1 ban on anchored putters, the style he used to win the Masters in 2013—a huge victory for his career and countrymen. Scott has insisted all spring that he knew he'd succeed following the anchoring ban, because he'd won with a short putter in the past, but greens at Augusta are a world apart from nearly any other venue. Somebody once said Augusta's greens were slicker than a dozen eels in a bucket of snot, and while the imagery might be sickening to some, the assertion isn't. We should have an answer as to Scott's potential weekend relevance by the end of the first round. To the amazement of nearly everybody, he ranks ninth in PGA Tour putting average entering the week. Caddie Steve Williams and his raging ego are back on the bag this week, which helps Scott's chances.

How about the guy at the bottom of the list? Take yer belly putter and stuff it, USGA. — Steve Elling (@EllingYelling)April 5, 2016

Did you know: 'Andra' means 'second' in Swedish

Henrik Stenson, Sweden

The quotable Swede turned 40 on Tuesday and is squarely atop the list of the best players who haven't yet won a major. Astoundingly, Stenson has finished second 10 times on the global scene over the past 24 months, with one victory in that stretch, and he's contended in other Grand Slam events, but never at the Masters, where his short-game deficiencies have been exposed. Majors history suggests his road is getting steeper, since only six players have claimed their first major at age 40 or older. Stenson, who can run hot at times, says he's biding his time, regardless of his age. "It seems that the guys who are up there often, even if it doesn't happen in the early stages, then it will happen eventually," he said. "So you've just got to keep on believing. But the ball doesn't know that I was T-3 at Valhalla [at the 2014 PGA Championship], so I've got to teach it again this week where it needs to go." He's never mustered a career top-10 finish at Augusta National, but he was third or better in his last two starts heading into this week. No Swede has ever won a major, Annika Sorenstam and the country's femmes notwithstanding.

Breaking; Henrik Stenson breaking.
Remarkable. — Tweeter Alliss (@TweeterAlliss)April 5, 2016

Lefty brings the needle, and his game, this time around

Phil Mickelson, United States

All but left on the side of the road after a winless stretch that dates to the summer of 2013, Mickelson switched coaches over the winter and has finally shown that, even approaching age 46, the fire still burns, however brightly. He already has three top-five finishes in 2016, and nobody gets more excited about playing at Augusta National than Mickelson, who usually brings his entire family — parents included — along for the ride down Magnolia Lane. A three-time winner, Mickelson finished tied for second last year behind Jordan Spieth, who matched the event's 72-hole scoring record. Lefty had a chance in 2012, too, before he took a triple-bogey on Sunday's fourth hole, when he hacked it around in the adjoining bamboo thicket like Indiana Jones. "I feel like the game is starting to be easy again," he said Tuesday. For positive harbingers, this is a great one: Lefty leads the tour in scoring, just as he did in 2004 and 2006, when he won at Augusta. Mickelson has been pouring on the trash talk this week, always a good sign. On Tuesday, highlighted by the Champions Dinner for past Masters winners, Mickelson dropped this sly bit of smack on D.J.: "We were walking down 1, and I just said, 'So, what are your plans tonight?' Might have been a little too subtle." There's no nuance here: Mickelson is born again, like the bloomin' azaleas, every spring at the Masters.

Lefty reflects on how Augusta National brings out his best. — KPMG Mickelson (@MickelsonHat)April 5, 2016

Fashion fact: No player wearing a flatbill cap has ever won the Masters

Rickie Fowler, United States

The colorfully clad Californian might be the only player in the field who thinks that odd shade of Masters green (think Kermit the Frog) is something to be worn in public. Fowler has finished fifth and 12th in his last two Masters starts and seems to be ramping up to a major breakthrough after finishing in the top five at all four Grand Slam events two years ago. He won earlier this year in Abu Dhabi and has finished outside the top 10 only twice in eight starts since January. In his biggest win to date, he claimed the so-called fifth major, the Players Championship, last May, with a brilliant, clutch display down the stretch. Now ranked a lofty fifth in the world, winning a major is the last box left to tick for the popular Ryder Cupper. "He's certainly been trending in the right direction for 15, 18 months," said Golf Channel analyst and former world No. 1 David Duval. Fowler is fine with the fact that in most minds, he's on page two of the favorites list. "I'm fine with sneakin' around," he said. In five Masters appearances, he's never missed a cut.

Remember me? I'm seeking the career Grand Slam this week

Rory McIlroy, Northern Ireland

It's been an unusually quiet season for McIlroy, who has four top-six finishes in 2016, but zero victories. Unlike last year, when his pursuit of the final leg of his career Grand Slam pursuit was one of the week's biggest plotlines, McIlroy hasn't been a huge talking point because he hasn't seriously contended on a Sunday in seemingly forever, especially when compared to multiple winners like Day and Scott. For better or worse, he's been placed in the final grouping on Thursday and will be last in the field to tee off. McIlroy earlier this spring switched to a cross-handed putting grip, which many interpreted as a plea for help, since his short game has never been as crisp as his long game. For those who love omens, McIlroy aced the par-3 16th hole in his Monday practice round, so maybe the Shamrock Slam has a chance of being fulfilled this week after all. "I probably feel a little more subdued going in this time [compared to 2015], because I haven't had the win this year," he said. "What Jordan did here last year, the U.S. Open and the whole way through the summer and what Jason Day did during the summer and this year, as well, yeah, I don't want to be left behind. I want to be a part of that conversation. I'm clinging on at the minute. A few wins will change that."

Rory McIlroy made a hole in one on 16 today at Augusta National. Hole location front left. Club 7 iron. That just happened.

— Kelly Tilghman (@KellyTilghmanGC)April 4, 2016

Hottest player that nobody in the States cares about

Danny Willett, England

One of the fastest-rising players from the European contingent, the blue-collar Willett won twice last year in Europe and added another title in Dubai in February. He finished 38th last year in his Masters debut, but faces an increasingly lengthy and daunting event streak: No European has won at Augusta since 1999, and with the careers of Lee Westwood, Ian Poulter and Luke Donald clearly on the back nine, it might be up to players like Willett or countryman Matt Fitzpatrick to collect the next green jacket for the Euros. If that's a pentagram on the wall next to Willett's tweet below, he may have made a deal with the devil to get the job done.

Morning warm up skip and movement prep. Get the body moving after a long travel day! — Danny Willett (@Danny_Willett)April 5, 2016

Maybe I shoulda saved some of last year's birdies for 2016

Jordan Spieth, United States

Spieth, the so-called Golden Child, ranks last on somebody's list of favorites? Yes, sir. When he tore up the Masters record book last year, setting or matching tournament scoring marks after his last three rounds, his walk to the clubhouse felt like a coronation. Then he validated the win with another major title at the U.S. Open, followed by close calls at the British Open and PGA Championship. That said, Spieth's momentum has stalled this spring, his mid-range putting has been nowhere as sharp as it was during his 2015 breakthrough, and the short stick at Augusta is the most important club in the bag. But he's been a resilient player and has finished second and first in two career trips to the Masters, at age 20 and 21, which is heady stuff. He's still learning. If history helps, Spieth has posted eight straight rounds at par or better to open his Masters career – a first for any player.

Young — Ryder Cup USA (@RyderCupUSA)March 31, 2016