There’s Always Next Year: Houston Texans

The Houston Texans started last season 2-5, and somehow it was even bleaker than that record would imply. Houston allowed 44 points to the Miami Dolphins in Week 7, for example; the game was 41-0 at the half. In a futile attempt to make the score respectable, head coach Bill O'Brien played his starters deep into the fourth quarter. The reward was having star back Arian Foster blow out his Achilles on a pass play. This team was done.

Or so everyone thought. But being "done" takes on a different meaning in the AFC South. The Colts imploded around Andrew Luck's injury, and the Jaguars weren't able to grow up fast enough. A defensive turnaround over the second half of the season led Houston to a division title by the two sweetest syllables in the English language: De-Fault.

The Texans were dispatched by an actual good team in the playoffs, and there is still plenty that should concern fans, but the team does have stars to build around in J.J. Watt and DeAndre Hopkins. On the field, if not in the box scores, Jadeveon Clowney looked ready to join those two in 2016.

But, uh, there is one slight problem to take care of first.

Coach and Quarterback Confidence Rating: 4/10

Brian Hoyer is not a game manager. He's not Alex Smith. He's not a find because he was behind Tom Brady. And he's not, as head coach Bill O'Brien suggested early in Hard Knocks, some sort of hidden gem who's never been given a real chance.

Hoyer is a decent backup quarterback. No more, no less. He can manage an offense on a drive-by-drive basis, especially if he's given a weapon like Hopkins to bail him out. But no current NFL quarterback puts the ball up for grabs on throws his arm can't cash as much as Hoyer.

O'Brien's system has spent portions of the past two seasons looking a) like a marching band asked to play football and b) surprisingly competent despite a lack of playmakers. I think highly of him, though I do think he has some known flaws at this point.

Key Offseason Decision: What quarterback (Hackenberg) will the Texans (Hackenberg) be able to acquire (Hackenberg) to push Hoyer (Hackenberg) out of the way?

Of course, getting out of quarterback purgatory is easier said than done with the No. 22 overall pick in the Draft. The best quarterbacks on the market were Sam Bradford and Kirk Cousins, and both have been snapped up. We've already seen what happens here with Ryan Fitzpatrick. Barring a mass adjustment to the level of value placed on quarterbacks, it's unlikely that North Dakota's Carson Wentz or Cal's Jared Goff will still be around at No. 22.

Connecting the dots will lead you to Penn State quarterback Christian Hackenberg. O'Brien coached Hackenberg in college, and during Hackenberg's freshman season his raw tools were evident. The NFL combine even had O'Brien and Hackenberg scheduled to talk at the same time, fueling conspiracy theories. I am not the sort of writer who quotes anonymous sources in columns, but let's just say I get the sense that there's a lot of fire here, not just smoke.

Hackenberg also spent the past two seasons without O'Brien playing horrendous football, regardless of excuses about his offensive line. Based on what I saw from him, I wouldn't even deem him worthy of a pick before Day 3 of the draft. But I do not make these decisions, and the O'Brien Texans—how can I put this delicately?—don't have a track record of being objective observers at quarterback.

Major Free Agents: G Brandon Brooks, C Ben Jones, DE Jared Crick, WR Nate Washington, P Shane Lechler

The closest thing to a star here is Brooks, who had a down year in 2015 but was phenomenal in his breakout 2014 campaign. Houston's offensive line depth is questionable as it is, and losing Brooks could trigger a full-scale disaster if they try to go cheap here. He's the easy No. 1 target.

Jones has been a league-average interior lineman for a few years now, and while he's not a must-keep, that does have some value.

Crick hasn't been the kind of steal some draft analysts thought he'd be as a 3-4 end, but he's also not a minus-player. I think he can find a tidy contract in this market.

Washington is old and wasn't good last season, but there aren't many actual free-agent receivers of note. Third-round rookie Jaelen Strong was never able to take his job. Lechler as emergency quarterback was a great gimmick to distract from his down year punting.

Cap Situation: $32,364,427—No. 12 in the NFL

Houston will almost certainly wind up with more cap space. Safety Rahim Moore and tight end Garrett Graham were healthy DNPs for most of the second half of the season. Releasing them will give the Texans $5.1 million in additional room.

Then there's Arian Foster. General manager Rick Smith has said he won't release him because of his salary. That sounds like a sly way to avoid the real issue: he's a 29-year-old back coming off an Achilles injury. Releasing Foster would generate $6.6 million of space.

Who will the Texans actually pursue with that money? There are some holes on defense, but the main concern has to be skill positions. Tight end Ladarius Green and wideout Marvin Jones are two of my favorite fits for this team. Outside of Hopkins, this team had nothing going on offense all season.