This Time, the Washington Capitals Won't Choke… Unless They Do

The Washington Capitals can't possibly fuck this up.

Can they?

Of course they can. They are, after all, the Washington Capitals.

They've never been past the second round with Alex Ovechkin. They've been Presidents' Trophy winners twice and failed to win more than six postseason games each time. They've disappointed in such wondrous and imaginative fashion that fans have convinced themselves that a fun ride in the regular season helps offset repeated crushing sadness in the playoffs. They're not mad about early exits. They're laughing. It's funny. You're the one who is mad. It's funny to them.

This year is different. This is a practically foolproof Stanley Cup–winning team.

And the best reason to believe that the Capitals won't crap all over the floor is that it was the second-worst goal-scoring season of Ovechkin's career.

Ovechkin had a nice season, but 33 goals is a decline from the previous three seasons in which he scored 50, 53, and 51 goals. He took about 80 fewer shots this year than he had in each of those seasons, and his shooting percentage was down two to three points, too. Yes, all this happened after someone wrote that the one thing you don't have to worry about when it comes to the 2016-17 Capitals is Ovechkin's consistent production. But that's not important right now.

While Ovechkin had a down year, the point about the Capitals' postseason chances in relation to its superstar still stands: his individual success matters as little as it ever has, and the regular season lends credence to that.

In 2015-16, the Capitals won the Presidents' Trophy with 120 points; this year, they won the Presidents' Trophy with 118 points. When it comes to score-adjusted Fenwick, this year's team (52.3) was a little better than last year's team (51.7). The goal differential this year (+81) is much better than last year (+59).

Even with Ovechkin scoring less, the Capitals have scored more goals this season and have allowed fewer goals this season compared to last season.

The Capitals, as a team, have never been more complete and better, and the regular season has proved that Ovechkin doesn't have to carry them in the postseason.

Braden Holtby is having a better season than last year, which ended with him winning the Vezina Trophy. Nicklas Backstrom has taken his game to another level. Marcus Johansson and T.J. Oshie have been better to varying degrees. Evgeny Kuznetsov has had a down year, but he can't possibly have a worse postseason than the one-goal, one-assist performance he had last year.

Brooks Orpik, don't read this.
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Kevin Shattenkirk, hello.

Orpik's ice time is down about two minutes per game, and at this stage of his career, having him on the ice as little as possible makes the Capitals better. Putting Shattenkirk at the top of the defense allows everyone else to slide down to more suitable slots, which obviously makes that group as deep as it has ever been.

Hockey is a funny sport. Players, coaches, and general managers will preach from the mountaintops about how it's the ultimate team sport. ("Talk about your 11 goals tonight." "Well, it wouldn't have been possible without my linemates and defensemen and coaches and trainers and ice maintenance crew and national anthem singer and the lighting in the building and the perfectly installed stanchions and the proper temperature in the building and…") But when a team consistently fails in the postseason, it's always one guy's fault—even if that guy is Ovechkin and he's averaged nearly a point per game in 84 playoff contests during his career.

The Capitals are built in such a way—finally—that they can be one of those teams that gets to the Final without its star doing anything for three rounds, like the New York Rangers in 2014 (Rick Nash), or that wins the Cup without its star doing anything for three rounds, like the Chicago Blackhawks in 2013 (Jonathan Toews).

So if the Capitals can't stop themselves, who can?

In the past, the first round was either the end or the beginning of it. In 2010, it was Jaroslav Halak. Last year, the Philadelphia Flyers put up a six-game fight that featured Michal Neuvirth playing the role of that German guy in Saving Private Ryan who gets let go, then shows up later to kill the weird roommate who lived with Chandler for a brief time on Friends. That grueling first-round series set the Capitals up for their eventual six-game loss to the Penguins in Round Two.

This year's first-round opponent, the Toronto Maple Leafs, have Frederik Andersen in goal, and nothing about his career .916 postseason save percentage says he can Halak the Capitals. The Maple Leafs finished ninth in hits but unless Matt Martin commits atrocities on every shift, this series should not create the same level of wear-and-tear on the Capitals as last year's series with the Flyers, a team that made fighting and maiming mainstream.

That said, it's possible this Leafs team of players in their early 20s may do irreparable damage to the Capitals over the rest of the playoffs by spending five or six games talking to them about Snapchat's newest features and plot points of CW shows during stoppages. There's no telling what toll that could take on Capitals veterans.

Then there's Round Two. The Penguins could be waiting there again, but without Kris Letang, they will be more vulnerable and beatable. If it's the Columbus Blue Jackets, well, everyone in the Capitals organization should be fired without severance if they can't take four of seven from that team.

Then there's the conference finals opponent, which will be an easier matchup than anyone the Capitals face in the first two rounds.

Then there's the West, which is as weak as it has been since 2005-06. The Chicago Blackhawks? The Minnesota Wild? The Anaheim Ducks? They would all be underdogs in a matchup against the Capitals.

It's the best team the Capitals have ever had coupled with the rest of the league being as mediocre as it has ever been.

The Washington Capitals can't possibly fuck this up.

Unless they choke. You can't rule that out.

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