Rizin Continues to Bet Big on Fedor

On the last night of 2015, legendary Russian heavyweight Fedor Emelianenko made a triumphant return to action after a hiatus of more than three years. He did so by crushing an inexperienced and outmatched Jaideep Singh under the Rizin Fighting Federation banner.

In the wake of the event, Rizin—which is helmed by former Pride boss Nobuyuki Sakakibara—announced that the resurgent Fedor would also be given the headlining honors of their next show, which is scheduled for April 17 in Nagoya, Japan. More recently still, it's been announced that Rizin plans to expand their reach with a Russian event sometime in the second quarter of 2016. And, as you probably guessed, they plan to sit Fedor atop that card too.

Yes, just a week after Fedor's first comeback fight, we already have a strong sense as to where and when the second and third steps of his comeback will occur. These are exciting times for the Russian great's legions of dedicated fans.

Yet in constructing their second and third events around Fedor, Rizin FF is putting all its eggs in one battle-worn, 39-year-old basket. That is to say, it's looking more and more like the new Japanese promotion's continued success depends on Fedor's continued success.

Now, it's entirely possible that Fedor's comeback continues as planned with an exciting series of wins. Recently, we've seen plenty of other aging fighters make unexpected returns to relevance. Mark Hunt, 41, and Andrei Arlovski, 36, have both burst back into the heavyweight top-10. A 38-year-old Fabricio Werdum has gone so far as to claim UFC heavyweight gold. There's no reason to assume a fighter as talented as Fedor can't realize similar late-career success.

Such an outcome seems even more feasible if Rizin continues to feed the Russian snacks like Singh who, though experienced in kickboxing competition, entered his bout with Fedor with a paltry 2-0 MMA record. And really, more of this matchmaking style seems very possible—rumors have recently surfaced that battered kickboxing veteran Ray Sefo was also offered a clash with Fedor.

Yet while this matchmaking strategy would enhance Fedor's chances of a lengthy streak, the fact is that MMA fans are not easy to fool. Eventually, Rizin will have to stop protecting Fedor, and oblige the fans' calls for a legitimate opponent. And whether that potential opponent is Muhammed "King Mo" Lawal, who won Rizin's inaugural heavyweight tournament and has since requested a bout with Fedor in the Bellator cage, or somebody else, that's where things get dangerous for the organization.

In the years leading up to his hiatus, we saw Fedor lose to Fabricio Werdum, Antonio "Bigfoot" Silva, and Dan Henderson—all of whom qualify as legitimate competition. Now several years older, Fedor's success against competition of this level seems even less certain. And this, naturally, begs the question: what happens to Rizin if Fedor loses?

The legendary heavyweight is without question, the organization's poster child, having apparently been tasked with the sole responsibility of headlining its cards. Yet any hopes that Fedor might still have it—the intangible factor that rendered him a near mythical figure for so many years, and the reason his comeback has generated any buzz at all—will evaporate if he loses. Rizin might still opt to build cards around him, but interest and viewership are both sure to plummet if he loses, because nobody wants to watch a down-and-out legend get his ass kicked.

Of course, Rizin has other stars at its disposal. They have access to One Championship belt-holder Shinya Aoki, for example, who made an appearance on the first Rizin card, smashing Kazushi Sakuraba into porridge in a fight that probably never should have happened. Similarly, the organization's broadcast deal with Spike TV seems to give them some loosely-understood access to Bellator's ever-growing roster. And finally, Rizin does have its hands on some hot young prospects, such as Kron Gracie and Asen Yamamoto who fought on New Years Eve, fearsome BJJ star Gabi Garcia, and Estonian sumo export Kaido Höövelson. None of these fighters, however, seem to have the name value to keep Rizin afloat should Fedor Emelianenko's comeback be derailed.

In such an event, it's very possible we'd see Rizin go the way of Elite XC, an upstart organization that famously met its doom after their golden goose, street fighting superstar Kimbo Slice, was cooked by short-notice opponent Seth Petruzelli back in 2008. That, of course, would be a fairly disappointing end for the organization tasked with reviving Japan's once-prosperous mixed martial arts scene.

With Rizin's announcement that Fedor will headline both their April 17 show, and their planned debut in Russia later in the year, there's no doubt that it's an exciting time to be a fan of the Russian great. It's possible that, thanks to Rizin's busy schedule, Fedor could exit 2016 on a 6, or perhaps 7-fight win-streak—which would of course be excellent for Rizin. It's also very possible, however, that Rizin finds itself on thin ice in its very first year, having bet too big on a horse whose time has passed. Only time will tell.