The Marlins are Playoff Contenders—Despite Giancarlo Stanton's Disappearance

Here's an odd statement: the Miami Marlins are playoff contenders.

Though the Marlins have captured two World Series titles in the course of their brief existence—as many (or more) in fewer opportunities than their division rivals—they've predominantly served as a punchline since 1993. That status has been hard-earned. The Fish entered this season having won fewer than 80 games every year since 2009, and with a penchant for bad press. You probably know their greatest hits by now: naming the general manager the field manager; hosting a firesale a year after christening their new ballpark with free-agent fireworks; and, uh, about that new ballpark. The Marlins have even turned failsafe endeavors―like, employing one of the best young pitchers, or locking up their franchise player to a lucrative long-term contract―into sideshows.

So to glance at the standings in late June and see the Marlins jockeying with the defending National League champion Mets for playoff positioning . . . well, it's a surprise. Here's another: the Marlins are doing this without a good Giancarlo Stanton and with Dee Gordon suspended 81 games for PED use.

If, back in the spring, you had made a list of things that had to happen for the Marlins to make the postseason―and you likely did so while wearing black and teal (and orange and blue and . . .)―your top four or five requirements probably boiled down to a comment like: "Jose Fernandez, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, and Stanton must stay healthy and go crazy." The majority of that has happened. Fernandez, Yelich, and Ozuna are each authoring marvelous seasons, with Ozuna causing us all to forget that he was involved in constant winter trade chatter. The exception to the Marlins' breakout frenzy is Stanton, the safest bet entering the year, whose struggles have exceeded the "slump" classification.

Stanton enters Friday with a 104 OPS+, which doesn't sound too bad until you consider his previous career-worst was 118, set during his rookie season. His overall statistics are being buoyed by a good April, because in reality he's been brutal for the past month and a half. Stanton has homered just twice in June, and has hit .196/.286/.364 since the beginning of May, all the while striking out 11 more times than he's reached base. Those numbers look worse when viewed within the greater context of the team.

Prior to Thursday night's game, in which he singled and homered, the Marlins employed eight hitters with a league-average OPS+ or better. Of those, Stanton's was the lowest. Yes, behind J.T. Realmuto and Justin Bour and Derek Dietrich―a trio of somewhat inexperienced players whose names sound made-up; yes, behind Yelich and Ozuna; and, yes, behind 42-year-old Ichiro Suzuki. It gets more bizarre. Stanton not only doesn't lead the Marlins in home runs―which, again, is often the most secure lock in the land―but he doesn't even lead the Marlins in home runs swatted by a right-handed outfielder whose surname includes the letters "a" and "o"; that prestigious honor belongs to the surging Ozuna.

If an unimpressive Stanton on its own is weird, and an unimpressive Stanton on a team of impressive non-Stantons is weirder, then an unimpressive Stanton on a team of impressive non-Stantons coached by Barry Bonds is the weirdest. You would think that if there were a player who would benefit from Bonds' presence, it would be Stanton, whose elite raw power might be the best in baseball. Instead Bonds has helped Realmuto by having him move closer to the plate; he's seemingly helped Yelich by instructing him to pull the ball more (a bigger accomplishment than it seems); he's helped Dietrich by not committing assault; and whatever he's done to help Ozuna ought to be taught in schools. But Stanton? Somehow Stanton has gone backward under Bonds' watch. Go figure.

Of course the smart money remains on Stanton and Bonds figuring this out. (The Marlins, not an organization known to be tight-lipped about their business, are reportedly unconcerned.) One of baseball's accepted eternal truths is that hitters will hit. Stanton qualifies as a hitter. Lest we forget he's a 26 year old whose previous five seasons resulted in a .921 OPS and 32 home runs per year. True, Stanton has dealt with various physical ailments―he was limited to 74 games last season by a broken hand―but the odds of returning to form are well in his favor. And boy, the Marlins hope that probability turns to reality soon.

As constructed, the Marlins are an averageish team: their park-adjusted offensive numbers are middle-of-the-pack; their defense is one of the worst in the majors; and their rotation could use another quality arm (though their bullpen has been better since they brought up some live-armed youngsters). If the Marlins are to hang around the rest of the way, they'll need a talent boost to do it. Unfortunately, the Fish don't have as much trade currency as their realistic competitors―the Cardinals, Mets, and Pirates . . . and sure, throw the Rockies in there if you'd like. (One preseason ranking placed Miami's farm system as the worst in the National League.) Dee Gordon will be back eventually to give the Marlins infield some needed depth—and perhaps ease the burden on the overperforming Dietrich and Martin Prado.

But the only star the Marlins are likely to add in the next month will have to come within the organization, and that means it's all up to Stanton. Should Stanton get right, the Marlins just might have enough to make their first postseason since 2003. Otherwise, the Marlins' season will be summed with an even odder statement than the one that applies now: that Stanton's play might've cost them the playoffs.