Are the New York Knicks Rising, or Ready to Disappoint?

If you put on a pair of noise-canceling headphones and squint your eyes just enough, you can see the New York Knicks on something resembling a normal NBA team progression. They bottomed out in 2014-15 and landed a potential franchise cornerstone through the draft. They improved in 2015-16 and look set to take another step forward this upcoming season. Even if they fail to make the playoffs, they hold all of their first-round draft picks—seriously, all of them—for the first time in decades.

On the other hand, the franchise is still owned by James Dolan. It's still signing big-name veterans with serious injury concerns. There's a new coach, Jeff Hornacek, who has yet to prove he's the right fit. Phil Jackson's future as the team's architect and Mr. Fix-It is up in the air. New York's newfound stability seems fragile, and as the 2016-17 NBA season tips off, it's hard to tell if this is really a team on the rise, or just another Knicks disappointment waiting to happen.

Let's squint even harder, and take a closer look:

Here's an interesting hypothetical for Knicks fans: Let's say the team misses the playoffs in 2016-17 but Kristaps Porzingis makes the leap to borderline All-Star. Would you consider that a successful season?

The answer, of course, is hell yes. The development of the second-year big man should be the team's first, second, and third priorities—assuming, that is, that their eventual goal is winning a championship. Dubbed "a unicorn" by no less an expert than Kevin Durant, Porzingis is just scratching the surface of his potential.

On defense, the 21-year-old Porzingis is already elite. He was one of the top rim protectors in all of basketball as a rookie, averaging 1.9 blocks per game. Opponents shot 9.7 percent worse within six feet of the hoop with Porzingis defending, a mark comparable to the likes of Hassan Whiteside and Draymond Green. The kid is a remorseless death squid, using his wingspan and quickness to track down shooters and swallow them whole. All he has to do is cut down on the fouls and improve at guarding stretch fours on the perimeter and he will be unstoppable.

If Porzingis had trouble in 2015-16, it was mainly on the offensive side of the ball. He struggled to hit from distance (33.3 three-point percentage) and at the rim (57.6 percent). Improving either one of those numbers would be a big help; improving both would launch his game into the stratosphere.

"How I Spent My Summer Vacation," by Carmelo Anthony:

1. Challenged fellow athletes to do more to speak out on social-justice issues in a widely read Instagram post.

2. Gave an impassioned speech on the importance of activism alongside friends LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Paul at the ESPYs.

3. Won third gold medal—a record for a men's basketball player—at the Rio Olympics.

4. Became Team USA's all-time leader in points and rebounds.

5. Made yet another beautiful speech after winning said gold medal.

6. Worked with owners as an executive member of the Players' Association on avoiding yet another lockout while also strengthening the D-League and improving pay for minor leaguers.

Oh, and that's coming off a 2015-16 season when all Anthony did was lead his team in points, rebounds, and assists—the only NBA player to do so.

What will Melo do for an encore? He struggled with his shooting last season as he worked his way back from knee surgery, hitting only 43.4 percent of his shots (33.9 percent from beyond the arc). If he can continue the improvements to his overall game while bringing his shooting numbers up to somewhere near pre-surgery levels, Anthony could surprise observers who feel he has entered the age-related decline portion of his career. At the very least, his contributions to the game, and society as a whole, should give Knicks fans something to be proud of.

Remember that last part about Knicks fans feeling proud?

Rose says 'I just want to hoop.'' Feels confident he'll be sharp for season opener. Thrilled at how he and friends 'presented'' at trial.

— Marc Berman (@NYPost_Berman)October 22, 2016

Former MVP Derrick Rose was found not liable in his recent gang rape civil trial. Now he's back with New York—the same Knicks he earlier dubbed a "super team"—after missing five of six preseason games. He hasn't been an above-average basketball player since 2012. But man, he looked good during a six or seven-week stretch last winter. And he looked good in the third quarter of the Knicks' blowout loss to the Rockets in their preseason opener. Will that carry over into an 82-game season? Can Rose stay healthy and productive for, say, two-thirds of those contests?

In exchange for Rose, Jackson gave away Robin Lopez, the only Knicks player to start all 82 games in 2015-16. In his place will be Joakim Noah, a former Defensive Player of the Year who played 29 games for the Bulls last season before undergoing shoulder surgery. Noah is going to be here for a while—New York inked him to a four-year, $72 million deal—so the team really needs to figure out a way to keep him on the court. At the very least, he'll be a great mentor for Porzingis.

Many observers panned Jackson for the Rose trade and for giving Noah a long-term deal, but he was widely praised for scooping up rock-solid shooting guard Courtney Lee to fill out the starting five. Lee will contribute on both ends of the court and doesn't need the ball in his hands; both qualities are essential for this Knicks club.

New York's two key reserves will be forward Lance Thomas, who signed a big deal to return to the Knicks, and Brandon Jennings, the former high-scoring guard of the Milwaukee Bucks and Detroit Pistons who signed a one-year deal after coming back from an Achilles tear. He has already earned the respect of the Garden faithful for throwing highlight-reel passes and beefing with random D-League scrub Casper Ware. Dude was born to play for the Knicks.

Any other second-unit contributions will have to come from youngsters like Kyle O'Quinn, Willy Hernangomez, Mindaugas Kuzminskas, Justin Holiday, and Ron Baker. It certainly would be nice for the Knicks to find one or two rotation players in Porzingis' age bracket.

Oh yes, and Sasha Vujacic is here as well.

— Andrew Ungvari (@DrewUnga)October 20, 2016

Marc Berman of the New York Post recently spoke to several members of the organization about Hornacek's offense, which is faster and more reliant on pick-and-rolls than Jackson's infamous Triangle. The offense was roundly praised by both Anthony and Porzingis, the only guys whose opinions matter.

Then there were the two strongest backers of Jackson's beloved triple post offense: Vujacic and former interim head coach (now back in an assistant role) Kurt Rambis. Rambis declined to comment for this story. Vujacic said of the new philosophy, "It's fun for now."

How salty! The Knicks are still running the Triangle, but Hornacek has a keen understanding of how to utilize the offense. Like most basketball plays, it works best when: A) you don't run it on every single possession, and B) you start running it with more than eight or ten seconds left on the shot clock.

The Knicks will never be confused for a run-and-gun offense, but they will run the floor in pursuit of easy buckets and they will mix up their looks, two things that never happened under the previous regime.

This team isn't going to defend, but if Hornacek can wring the most out of Anthony and Porzingis on offense, they might just shoot their way into playoff contention. At the very least, they won't be boring.

Want to read more stories like this from VICE Sports? Subscribe to our daily newsletter.