Could Matt Ryan Be the Next Tom Brady?

On February 4, one day before playing in his first Super Bowl, Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan will likely win his first MVP award. By any measure, it's a richly deserved honor, as Ryan led the league in passer rating, total QBR, and yards per attempt while also leading the NFL's most potent offense. There are very few holes to poke in Ryan's MVP case, but there's one thought that's hard to ignore no matter how impressive his 2016 performance was: Wait, Matt Ryan? Really? He's going to be the MVP? Really??!! Him?

Because let's be honest, this is the first season where Matty Ice was a truly great quarterback. In his first eight seasons in the league, he was a definitively above-average QB, but not much else. He had a firmly defined place in the NFL, but he rarely stood out; if anything, he was kind of known for being boring. So when we see Ryan suddenly having a breakout season at approximately the midway point in his NFL career, it's hard not to wonder if this is just a fluke, and whether five years from now his probable MVP award will look ridiculous in retrospect. Admittedly, there's no way to know for sure if his 2016 season is an outlier from prior performance, or indicative of future performance. However, if you're looking for evidence to suggest it might be the latter, look no further than his Super Bowl opponent, and nearest competition for MVP, Tom Brady.

Wait, Tom Brady? Really? Matt Ryan??!!

Maybe. These days, we know Brady as one of the best QBs in the league, and on the short list for best ever. He routinely puts up ridiculous numbers with remarkable ease. What some may not remember, however, is that while Brady has always been a winning quarterback, his raw statistics weren't always as impressive as they are now. In fact, in his first six seasons as a starting QB for the New England Patriots, he never threw more than 28 touchdowns, and was routinely good for somewhere around 12 to 14 interceptions. Brady's breakthrough came in 2007, when the team added Randy Moss and Wes Welker, and he exploded for a then-record 50 touchdowns to only eight interceptions. The contrast between Brady's 2007 and what he had done in every previous season is remarkably similar to Matt Ryan's 2016 versus the rest of his career. In fact, if you look at the numbers, they're fairly identical, with Ryan perhaps looking a little better over 30 more games.

And yet, no one in 2007 was wondering if Brady made sense as an MVP, and very few were wondering if it were a mere fluke. Why did he get more leeway than Ryan? Because he already had three rings. Brady's playoff prowess meant that his greatness was rarely questioned, even if his numbers frequently rated as "good, but not eye-popping." If you're looking for a cross-sports comparison, think Derek Jeter. For that reason, when Brady put together his historic 2007 season, it seemed less preposterous—the stats finally confirmed the greatness everyone assumed must be resting beneath the surface. Brady had accumulated more credibility by 2007 than Matt Ryan has now, but that doesn't mean Ryan's statistical leap couldn't prove to be just as permanent as Brady's was.

Of course, it's equally possible that Ryan will revert back to his old self, and this goes down as That One Magic Year. There's no definitive reason why that should be the case, though, and Brady's continued brilliance after a mid-career evolution should give Falcons fans hope that Matty Ice can do the same. So, while Falcons fans will undoubtedly be rooting for Vic Beasley to pound Brady into the turf next Sunday, they could also thank him for setting a positive precedent, and giving them good cause to be optimistic about the latter half of their quarterback's career.