The Blue Jays Should Have Little Trouble with the Rangers

This story originally appeared on VICE Sports Canada.

Fans of the Toronto Blue Jays can be forgiven if they felt their hearts in their throats when it was determined that their club's return to the postseason after 22 years in exile would come in the form of a meeting with the Texas Rangers and starter Yovani Gallardo.

In his first season in the American League after coming over in a trade with the Milwaukee Brewers, Gallardo was masterful against the Blue Jays twice this season. At least as far as the results go.

Blue Jays hitters managed just six hits off Gallardo in 13 2/3 innings, none of which went for extra bases. Add in the five walks he issued, and that makes for a .136/.224/.136 batting line for Blue Jays hitters this season against the man they may have to face twice in order to get through to the next round of the playoffs.

A daunting task, then? Actually, probably not as much as it feels.

We could examine what specifically happened in those games, but the basics are this: the balls that the Blue Jays hit on those days found their way into gloves. The 39.1 percent hard-contact rate that Gallardo gave up in the first of those two games was his highest mark on the season. The second, at 33.3 percent, ranked seventh among his 33 starts. And the Jays' batting average on balls in play in those games? The fourth (.130) and seventh lowest (.200) of his starts on the season—a year in which his BABIP was .303.

Otherwise, he was typical Gallardo—which is not a particularly impressive package, despite what Jays fans' fears might be telling them. A below-average strikeout rate (a career low 15.3 percent, or just 5.9 per nine innings), an above-average walk rate, and a swinging strike rate of just 6.5 percent, putting him in the bottom ten in the league among qualified starters.

Gallardo doesn't miss bats, and when those bats are being held by the Blue Jays, bad things are going to happen for the pitcher, which is exactly what's happened to him in the second half. His ERA sunk to 4.69, with opposing hitters lighting him up to the tune of a .321/.383/.512 line over that span. Had the Rangers played another team—one not so heavy on right-handed hitters or one Gallardo hadn't had such success with this season—he might not have even been on their ALDS roster.

In other words: fear not, Jays fans—at least as far as that boogeyman goes.

The Rangers added the excellent Cole Hamels near the trade deadline, and he, too, is a fearsome pitcher for the Jays to have to face—a formidable obstacle in Game 2, especially if Toronto should lose Thursday, with the youngster Marcus Stroman going against him. But there are things to like about this matchup for the Jays, too.

For one, they have absolutely feasted on left-handed pitching this season—posting an MLB-best 124 wRC+, .186 ISO, 10.2 percent walk rate, and the third-lowest strikeout rate at 17.6 percent. And while Hamels is hardly just your average lefty, that has to bode well. So does the fact that he's been a little home run prone to right-handed hitters this year, serving up 20 on the season.

Derek Holland, the lefty starter who may get the third game for Texas, is another worry for the Rangers, given his 4.91 ERA and 5.30 FIP over ten starts, including one where he was touched up for four runs on seven hits, including three home runs, by these very Blue Jays. And the bullpen won't exactly be riding in to save them. Texas' relief corps ranked 24th in WAR, while posting a 4.12 ERA and 4.26 FIP. Though, like the Jays, the group showed improvement in the second half, despite some shaky performances down the stretch from a little-tested closer (in the Rangers' case, Shawn Tolleson), particularly in the last series of the year, allowing a run on two hits last Friday, before ending the season by giving up home runs to the only two batters he faced Saturday.

Then there are the lineups. The Jays have the potential to pitch left-handed ace David Price twice in this city, and their late-inning lefty reliever, Brett Cecil, has been absolutely unhittable o late. Neither of those things bode well for a lefty-heavy Rangers lineup, with key guys Shin-Soo Choo, Mitch Moreland, Prince Fielder (who with 23 home runs is hardly the slugger most remember him as), and Rougned Odor all hitting from the left side. Not one of them is the calibre of hitter that the Jays boast in Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion or Troy Tulowitzki.

Of course, those lefties might be due success against some of the Jays' right-handed pitchers, though Stroman's kitchen-sink repertoire and Marco Estrada's very even splits should help the Jays weather that storm, as well.

In short: the Blue Jays should have few problems with the Rangers. We all know that in the baseball playoffs things often don't work out the way they should, but it's got to be hard for Jays fans not to be confident, with so much of the Rangers' best pitching being either bad (Gallardo) or left-handed, while Toronto's pitching is well-suited to neutralize the solid lefty hitters that Texas possesses. The Blue Jays also have the best lineup in the major leagues.

These sorts of series, Jays fans are now learning all too well, are going to be fraught with tension, no matter how well the matchup favours one side or the other. But this one does have a clear favourite. It does have a team that ought to prevail. It's the Toronto Blue Jays. And while that may not give a whole lot of comfort to Jays fans over these next several days and nights, maybe it should.

The 2015 Jays are built to beat just about anyone. For now, the Rangers will suffice.