Your Vote Could Decide if Same-Sex Marriage is Legalised in Australia in 2016

Illustrations by Ashley Goodall and Ben Thomson.

If the Labor Party wins the federal election this July 2, a same sex marriage bill could be introduced to parliament within the next year. If the Liberal party wins the federal election, we could be publicly voting on whether or not a same sex marriage bill is introduced to parliament within the next year. Wait, what?

Let's backtrack, the outcome for marriage equality in this country could alter dramatically depending on which party forms the next government. So it's definitely worth getting acquainted with everyone's policies before you vote.

What you already know is that Australian law has lagged behind public opinion on gay rights for a long time. In fact, until 1997, homosexuality was actually still illegal in Tasmania. And in Queensland and South Australia, the gay panic defence is still available for use in criminal courts.

Since the early 2000s, every national poll has seen growing support for gay marriage. But federal policy hasn't followed these trends. In fact, perhaps anticipating a cultural shift away from traditional conceptions of marriage, Prime Minister John Howard changed the wording of the Marriage Act in 2004—a pointed attempt to prevent courts from interpreting state marriage laws in favour of same sex couples.

It worked. In 2013, the High Court ruled an attempt by the ACT's parliament to legalise gay marriage as inconsistent with the Marriage Act, and therefore unconstitutional.

WATCH: VICE breaks down how your vote can impact marriage equality in Australia.

Prior to 2004, there was no federal definition of the word "marriage." Now, according to federal law, "Marriage means the union of a man and a woman to the exclusion of all others, voluntarily entered into for life." It's also specified that "Certain unions are not marriages. A union solemnised in a foreign country between: (a) a man and another man; or (b) a woman and another woman; must not be recognised as a marriage in Australia." You can view the whole thing right here.

Howard's changes were supported by both the major parties, although they were disparaged by human rights groups, the Greens, and the Democrats. But while Labor has historically supported traditional definitions of marriage, this election their leader Bill Shorten is promising to introduce legislation to amend the Marriage Act and reverse Howard's changes within 100 days of getting elected.

So what are the Liberals proposing? Rather than immediately introducing a bill into parliament, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Attorney-General George Brandis have promised, if elected, to hold a plebiscite on the gay marriage issue. It will "very likely" take place immediately follow the election, assuming a Liberal victory. A plebiscite vote will ask Australians one simple question—whether or not gay marriage should be legalised.

A plebiscite is kind of like a referendum, with a crucial difference: it isn't legally binding. The constitution won't change if there's a "yes" vote, and neither will the Marriage Act. In fact, even if the plebiscite reveals 100 percent support for gay marriage, the government isn't compelled to do anything with this information. And conservative Liberal party senators Cory Bernardi and Eric Abetz have both said they'll ignore the plebiscite and vote against marriage equality legislation no matter what.

While a plebiscite may force politicians to finally acknowledge strong public support for same sex marriage, it would do so at a significant cost. The federal government has estimated that a plebiscite campaign and vote would cost the Australian public around $160 million, but an independent assessment earlier this year by PricewaterhouseCoopers puts the number somewhere closer to $525 million.

This is based on estimates of $281 million for the time cost of voting, $158 million for the voting itself, $66 million for campaigning, and $20 million for mental health harms to 50,000 LGBTQI Australians.

Perhaps you can't put a price on a human rights issue. But it's those mental health harms that concern many gay marriage activists. Groups such as Australian Marriage Equality are actually totally opposed to a popular vote on the issue, citing the mental harm a hard-fought plebiscite campaign would cause to LGBT citizens.

In 2015, the Australian Psychological Society submitted a report to the Senate Legal and Constitutional Affairs Committee urging them to reconsider the move. According to the Psychological Society report, "a public vote is likely to present significant risks to the psychological health and wellbeing of those most affected." It also states that "marriage equality is a human rights and equal opportunity issue and therefore on principle, should be a matter for Australian law and our parliamentary system, not a popular vote."

So those are your options—a hideously expensive and psychologically damaging plebiscite, or a bill introduced to parliament with no guarantee of success. A more positive spin? Your vote in this election will determine if, when, and how the Australian Marriage Act is amended. Choose wisely.

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