Making Sense Where There Is None: An Explanation Of The 2017 AFL Season Thus Far

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Making Sense Where There Is None: An Explanation Of The 2017 AFL Season Thus Far

It's been a difficult season to figure out, a season where any team on any day can win. It's bewildering. And it's also awesome. So we decided to sit down and figure it all out.

You only need to look at Round Eight to acknowledge this season has been one subtle earthquake full of fairly significant after shocks: the Bulldogs lost to the Eagles ( a shock in itself because we expected a reigning premier to win everything); and the Demons thumped the awesome-not-so-awesome-now Crows. The week before the Saints stunned the Giants and the Roos delivered a killer blow against the Crows.

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If you look through each round there's been not only upsets, but come-from-behind wins. Leads that dissolved in the dying seconds only to become deficits. The Dockers have almost mastered the junk time win. It's been a difficult season to figure out, a season where any team on any day can win. It's bewildering. And it's also awesome. So we decided to sit down and figure this baffling season out.

Here's a breakdown of each team explaining how they've got to where they are on the ladder.

** Crows (6-2): The Crows started with bang, with a six-game winning streak and looked like raging favourites to claim the 2017 Premiership cup. But sizeable 59 and 41 point losses in a row to the Roos and Demons respectively has questioned marked their invincibility. One of the reasons for their hot start: they are best team in the competition for contested possessions and marks. They also have the best attack. All that to say, when they win, they seem to win big with the weapons up front leading the charge. They also have relatively zero injury concerns with Mitch McGovern back in two months and Tom Lynch close to match ready. Rory Sloane was held to 11 possessions in the Demons loss and imperfections like that will need to be addressed as the Crows had no answer to the Vince tag job.

Giants (6-2): When they lost to the Crows in the opening round by 56-points, I think we all thought the Giants were in for a long season. Turns out, they're in the mix for flag contenders. They are yet to find true consistency: they claimed their biggest scalp in beating the Bulldogs by 2-points but then struggled against the Pies at Spotless Stadium for a narrow win (a game they should have lost). But we're eight weeks in. They'll figure it out. They have the fourth best attack, ranked the best clearance team in the league and are ranked in the Top Five for inside 50s and contested ball. Not only are they winning the ball in tight, but they're creating an abundant of opportunities. More wins will come if they continue down this path.

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Eagles (6-2): The Eagles are third! Pinch me. Most footy pundits thought when Nic Naitanui went down with a knee injury that the Eagles' season would see a lot of downs and some ups. And that's fair, he's an important cog. But they've shown they can survive without him. Gaff, Shuey and Yeo have dominated the midfield while Kennedy, Darling and Lecras have been very effective up forward. The Eagles have worked hard on disposing the ball effectively and contested marks, ranked fifth and second for both respectively. They still continue to struggle at the M.C.G., losing to the Hawks (by 50) and the Tigers (by 11). That said, they only have to make four more trips to Melbourne to Etihad, which makes the Eagles almost a top four certainty. And just think about the places they could go in September with Naitanui coming off the bench.

Power (5-3): The Power have won three of their last four and have catapulted into third spot. Coach Ken Hinkley must be fairly happy with this situation, considering his president Kochie turned up the inferno by making a "finals this year or bust" type declaration at the start of the season. Whatever the catalyst was, they're in good shape and back to the 2014 machine that showed plenty of run and overlap, sharp skills and contested ball wins. Their immediate fixture looks good with only three games against Top Eight teams in the next two months: a struggling Cats, a Tigers team that has lost three on the trot and Eagles. The run home looks kind of menacing or at the very least not to be taken lightly: Demons, Saints, Crows, Magpies, Bulldogs and Suns. They have zero injury concerns. Kochie can take a chill pill now. Welcome back, Port.

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Cats (5-3): They hit us with five straight wins to start the season and it had people talking "finals for sure." Now, we're kind of sure they could play finals after three losses. The confusing part is they could be 3-2: the Roos and Demons games probably should have ended in losses. And even against the retooled Saints, it took a last quarter dash to escape a loss. Now, since then, they're on the receiving end of three stinging defeats – Pies, Suns, Bombers. All of a sudden their fifth place ladder position makes them look like imposters. The bad news (yes, there's more bad news) is that their next six games are very much season defining: Bulldogs (coming off a loss), Power, Crows, Eagles, Dockers, and Giants at Spotless. They sprung out of the box early but deficiencies in their defensive press which was cut apart by the Bombers last week, is a major concern for them trying to keep up appearances in the Top Eight. Fix the press, tighten up their back half and things could improve.

Saints (5-3): Who are they? Seriously. Are they rebuilding? Their first two losses indicated yes. Are they Premiership contenders? Perhaps. They dismantled the Giants by 23 points so anything is possible. What they are doing is gathering momentum. They've won five out of their last six, although an argument can be made those wins came at the hand of battling clubs: Lions, Pies, Hawks and Blues. Their sluggish start was brought about by a lack of cohesion but guys like Billings, Riewoldt, Ross, Stevens, Steven and Steeles are starting to click. Most predicted the Saints to gel and hit their straps in a few years as their younger players gained more experience but I think they've already arrived.

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Tigers (5-3): I wrote about the Tigers for Vice Sports and their prolific start to the 2017 season and how it was almost unbearable to think they are actually a good team. Since then they've lost three in a row – two against flag fancies the Crows and Bulldogs – and while it's still too early to decide whether or not the wheels have well and truly fallen off, cracks are starting to emerge. They play the Giants this week at Spotless Stadium, which could equate to their fourth blemish in a row and all of a sudden the losses have piled up. And the question will be: how many more? And honestly, how could anyone barrack for the Tigers? They take you all the way up, then all the way back down again.

Bulldogs (5-3): Form is irrelevant at this point for the Bulldogs. They won the 2016 Grand Final from seventh position. If you've got the mental capability to win a flag from there, to win four pressure cookers in a row, including the big showdown in September, then five wins from eight weeks has me sold that they are on track to repeat last year's brilliance.

Dockers (5-3): If there's one thing I've learned about the Dockers is don't fall asleep against them: they'll get you. They've pulled off some miraculous wins from against-the-clock situations and I wonder how long can they keep that gig up for? Their first two losses at the start of the season was at an aggregate of 121 points and Ross Lyon looked like a coach firmly in the gun. But a youth plan has awakened the sleepy Dockers and has injected much needed life into a team that has been aging for some time now. And it seems to be working. The argument against the narrow wins – three by less than a goal – is that they stole them. Well, they did. There are no what-ifs. The question that needs to be answered and will be answered in the next month is: can they keep winning games in red time?

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Demons (4-4): The Demons are a frustrating bunch to watch. Just when you think they've got a great thing going, they go and lose winnable matches: the Dockers loss by 2-points and the Tigers loss - where they gave up a four-goal lead heading into the final quarter- are two that come to mind. And just when you think they've hit a string of lows, they go and beat a hot Crows in Adelaide by 41-points. And that's the Demons in a nutshell. When you think about some of their losses – three by roughly two goals or less – the Demons could actually be 7-1 with their only definitive loss against the Cats, a game they kick themselves out of with 13.19. What other teams should take note of is that this team is second in the competition for contested ball wins, second for effective disposals, third for clearances and second for uncontested ball. I guess, what this means, is that they're a top four proposition getting the results of a middling team but that could change pretty quick.

Bombers (4-4): They've played breathtaking football and they've been horrible. John Worsfold said he'd have to wait until round 10 to see what this team is capable of and well, we've kind of arrived at that checkpoint. What we know is that there's a large gap between their best and worst so far and after a promising start they've gone 2-3 from their past five. The win against the Cats was impressive, but being overrun by the Dockers and a poor showing against the Demons means they are still a work in progress. The loss against the Blues also stung. But, I think we all knew that this was going to be the case for the Bombers in 2017. Clangers are killing them. The Bombers are averaging 56 per game – fourth most. They need to be better with contested ball (ranked 14 th) and be more effective with their ball use (ranked 12 th). If they can trim back those errors – which would fix their effective disposal problem - they might be able to compete with teams such as the Bulldogs and Giants.

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Suns (3-5): The Gold Coasters may be 3-5 but they lead the league in disposals, uncontested possessions, effective touches and bounces. A lot of this suggests they are moving the ball well, creating space and spreading wide. They are ranked fourth for inside 50s per game, with Lynch (20), Matera (15) and Ah Chee (11) kicking the lion's share of the goals. It's tough to say if they're underachieving. They have some terrific moving parts but lack the hard-ball winners other teams have – Bontempelli, Dangerfield, Oliver. And perhaps that's been their weakness during those losses against hard-at-it teams: the Lions, Giants, Crows, Roos and Power. Two of their wins haven't been against quality teams (Hawks, Blues), which makes me think that the Suns are stat sheet stuffers and not result getters.

Blues (3-5): The Blues have been sneaky. They pinched wins against the Bombers and Swans. And they showed up the Pies. All of them deserved wins. Nothing fluky about them; just unexpected. Here was have a team with a fledgling coach in Brendon Bolton, a team with barely any major artillery, aside from aging leaders. And they've managed to avoid wooden spoon territory for now. The main reason has been their marking (ranked 4 th for contested marks and are the no.1 marking team in the league) and young crop: Petrevski-Seton is the best Rising Star tackler (32) and second for contested ball (57); Cripps is starting to become more consistent; Casaboult has 13 goals; and Marchbank is the Rising Star number one uncontested ball winner. The young pups need more breaking in, which should make for an interesting 2017 to come.

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Hawks (3-5): The Hawks have seemingly turned a corner for now, winning three of their last four. But it doesn't mask the fact when they lose they lose by an average of 10 goals. Back to back 86-point defeats diagnosed a gaping hole in their back half. What they seem to be lacking are hard-ball winners and contested winners, ranked 15 th in the league for contested ball and 16 th for clearances. Their highest ball winner is Tom Mitchell averaging 34 touches, then Hodge with 25 and then it drops off fairly rapidly beyond that. Missing O'Meara and Birchall through injury hurts. Vickery, whether Clarkson will admit it or not, is a bust. And Josh Gibson, as tough and hard at the ball he is, is not the same player he used to be. Enjoy the wins when they come Hawks fans.

Swans (2-6): It's crazy to think that another win in round nine could land them 12 th spot which is far, far greater than what their 0-6 start suggested they would produce in 2017. John Longmire was adamant things would turn. And they have, kind of. History tells us the Swans are part of the furniture when it comes to post season action. But things are a little tougher this year. They're 16th in the league for one per centers, something they've traditionally been adept in and they concede 48 hit outs per game, the second most in the AFL. True grit and first use is what the Swans have built their football culture around and for some reason the spark hasn't been there in 2017. But It's not a stretch to think they can make finals from here. They're three games outside the Top Eight and they're coming off two large wins of 54 and 42 over the Lions and Roos. Anything is possible with the Swans.

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Kangaroos (2-6): Brad Scott's boys have some ground to make up. After playing finals in 2016, the Roos haven't lived up to those expectations in 2017. Call it unlucky or inability to close games out, but losing their first five games – three of them less than a goal – will come back to haunt them whether or not they can turn around their form. The win against the Crows was left field but perhaps it gave us a look into their young playing stock's capabilities. But it's their lapses – mental and skill – that have cost them. They are ranked 14 th for effective disposal and that would infuriate Scott no end. And it should. Had they been a bit cleaner, they could be 4-4 or 5-3. In the next month the Roos play Demons, Blues, Tigers, Saints. Three losses from that quartet and the season is virtually done.

Magpies (2-6): Things aren't working for the Pies but it's not like they've been completely putrid either. The closeness of the competition means some teams are just an inch or so off vying for a win. The Pies' average losing margin is 15 points and that will suggest they've been very competitive during the six losses. In fact they could have won all six games against some quality opposition that includes the Bulldogs, Giants, Saints and Tigers. But being good also means finding more to win those games and they just haven't been able to find "more". Their 2-6 situation has most likely prompted an internal cleanse and examination by coaching staff of the playing list to identify what it is they are missing. By year's end Buckley is sure thing to go, if not before then. But he'll have some mates; there will be a handful of players looking for new homes as well.

Lions (1-7): They defeated the Suns by two points in round one but things have turned ugly since then. They've lost seven in a row which included their worst loss by 83-points against the Power at the Gabba and they haven't been able to kick a score of more than 100 yet this season. But, what they have done in eight weeks is shown us that the future in Brisbane is bright. They've shown patches of quality football (that Bulldogs loss and that third quarter against the Bombers). On top of that, Beams has been a great skipper, leading from the front averaging 28 touches and has kicked five goals. Rockliff is averaging 30 disposals with eight tackles per game and four goals in total. Zorko has also excited us with the ball. Stef Martin has become elite, averaging 43 hit outs a game which is second in the competition behind Sandilands. Hipwood has been a find (leads the club with 13 goals) and McCluggage needs more time. Watch this space.