Looks Like the Government’s Refugee Ban Is In Trouble

In October, Immigration Minister Peter Dutton announced the government will impose an outright ban on all "queue jumping" boat arrivals from ever setting foot in Australia. The proposed immigration changes will block refugees from obtaining any future visas, including tourist and business visas. But it's looking unlikely that the controversial—and actually kind of illegal—legislation will pass through the Senate.

The ban has been predictably endorsed by One Nation and its leader Pauline Hanson, who told Channel Seven that Australia should send a strong, clear message that "refugees are not welcome here." Jacqui Lambie is also a fan. Yet other MPs and Senators haven't been so supportive: Labor voted against the bill as it passed through the House of Representatives last week, and they're set to do so in the Senate as well.

Unsurprisingly, the Greens aren't fans of an immigration law that contravenes Article 31 of the United Nations' 1951 Convention relating to the Status of Refugees. So they're voting against it. Which means, as with the Coalition's controversial plebiscite bill, the fate of the refugee ban rests with cross benchers. And as you'll recall, the plebiscite failed to pass.

With Labor and the Greens opposing the bill, it will need just three more "no" votes to fail. That's looking increasingly likely, with Derryn Hinch and David Leyonhjelm both expressing their doubts over a visa ban being an effective measure in deterring future boat arrivals. The Nick Xenophon Team appears split on the issue, but both Senators Stirling Griff and Skye Kakoschke-Moore seem opposed to the bill, with Griff telling the Guardian on Monday that he believed "the ban would be cruel, and does nothing to achieve the objective of stopping the boats."

If there's one man who truly believes in the refugee ban, it's Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. At a press conference on Monday, he seemed to assume he had the public behind him, saying that "the Australian people support the government in sending this clear and unequivocal message."

"You know Australians want their borders kept secure, you know that Australia recognises that our policy on border protection has worked," he said.

The proposed changes to immigration law, if they do manage to pass, would apply retrospectively. This means that any boat arrivals detained on Nauru and Manus Island—72 percent of whom have been assessed as legitimate refugees—will be blocked from entering Australia, despite the fact that they could have expected legal asylum when they fled their respective countries.

Weirdly enough though, they could end up living in the United States.

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