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The VICE Guide to the Postal Plebiscite

Peter Dutton Is Voting "No" But Admits "Yes" Will Probably Win

He's the first government minister to predict a majority vote for same-sex marriage.

There are still four weeks to go before voting closes on the same sex marriage postal survey, and around 10 million people have had their say so far, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. And while it still feels like we're a million years away from knowing the result (November 15), Federal Minister for Immigration and Border Protection, Peter Dutton, has become the first member of cabinet to publicly predict a "Yes" result.


"My judgment is … it will be a win for the 'Yes' vote and that is my judgment of where the outcome will be," Mr Dutton said, speaking at an Australian Financial Review Magazine function last night. The Immigration Minister publicly supports the "No" campaign, but has indicated he would legislate for equal marriage if the "Yes" campaign wins.

"The other aspect I might say about the postal vote is that I think it gives a greater legitimacy to a significant social change and I think for same-sex couples … that is best to be done with the support of millions of Australians demonstrated through a ballot as opposed to a five-to-midnight crossing of the floor of four people," he continued.

Hmm, maybe we should just get rid of government altogether, then? Maybe parliament is… pointless? Dutton didn't quite go this far. He did however indicate, somewhat frighteningly and with the help of a sport analogy, that he had leadership ambitions and wouldn't rule out becoming Prime Minister someday. "You don't sign up to play for the Wallabies or the Socceroos or for the Australian cabinet to not be leader or have the opportunity to become leader one day," he said.

"But my view is it's in the best interests of our party to have a stability of leadership at the moment because ultimately it will be good for our country and then if that's rewarded at some point, or if you are foolish because of that and the opportunity passes you by, then so be it."

If you haven't voted in the postal survey yet, there's still time. Your form should have arrived by now, but if it hasn't then don't hesitate to call the ABS and request a new one. You can reach the dedicated postal survey helpline between 8AM and 8PM local time, seven days a week via 1800 572 113.

You're also able to vote, with their permission, on somebody else's behalf. More info on how to do that here.

The ABS requests that all forms are sent in by October 27, with all forms received after November 7 rendered invalid. Results will be published on the morning of November 15.

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