NFL DFS Week 2: Who Do You Trust?

With Week 1 in the books, we now have one data point instead of zero. That’s nice, but a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing! We can start to see some tendencies that shatter or confirm our biases, but what we see now may not carry forward. At least we have some grasp of what points are needed. Last week, to win $1,000 in the DraftKings G.P.P., you needed 22 points per player. To win in a 50/50, you needed more like 15 points per player.

How’d The Winners Do It?

This week, no single player was required to get a top 10 finish in the G.P.P., but you had to have either Matt Forte (this week’s salary is $7,700) or Carlos Hyde ($5,100), and you had to have two of Julio Jones ($8,900), Keenan Allen ($7,100), and DeAndre Hopkins ($7,400). Mixing in some very high-ownership players like Chris Ivory ($4,700), Jordan Matthews ($7,100), and Jarvis Landry ($5,900) helped. Other than that, you needed a top-third quarterback, tight end, and defense. Not impossible, right? You had to hit on the high-scoring guys (very difficult), pick the right kind of chalk (not nearly so difficult), and not screw anything up (perhaps the most difficult of all).

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So do we try win this week’s matchups with last week’s winning players? It’s so tempting! Keenan Allen caught 15 balls and was DraftKings’ third-highest scorer, and that was without a TD. Can Allen get all those targets again? I’m nervous that San Diego’s game in Cincinnati will not provide the same opportunity. Julio Jones was the only expensive receiver who justified his price. Can I afford him again against the Giants? Again: very tempting. And I see no reason why Forte and Hyde can’t get the same amount of touches (29 and 28) this week.

Finally, now that New England is playing a weekend game, another question emerges:

To Gronk Or Not To Gronk?

Last year, it was important to have Rob Gronkowski ($7,300) when he was great, but the extraordinary number of tight end touchdowns in Week 1 muddles this a bit. I can see many tickets pairing Gronk with the slightly cheaper Week 1 star running backs, Hyde and Ivory. If you want the more expensive Forte, you might find yourself needing to leave off Gronk, and filling in with one of those TE TD makers from last week. For my part, I’m leaning away from Gronk, and will hope to fill in with better value at his position.

Rob Gronkowski was a big producer in the season opener, but you may be better served looking elsewhere Week 2. Photo via Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports

Here are some players I’m considering for Week 2:

QB

Aaron Rodgers ($8,300) – Very motivated

Sam Bradford ($6,900) – The Eagles still have me intrigued

Carson Palmer ($6,700) – Great price relative to his tier and he’s playing Chicago

Andy Dalton ($5,800) – Suddenly, lots of weapons to throw to

RB

Marshawn Lynch ($7,200) – Didn’t score but had a nice combo of runs and targets

Eddie Lacy ($7,200) – Ditto, but scored

Mark Ingram ($5,900) – Brees tosses it to his RBs and Tampa’s defense stinks

Jonathan Stewart ($5,500) – Really underpriced

Ben Cunningham ($4,400) – Cheap, catches passes, and plays Washington; check if Mason plays

WR

Antonio Brown ($8,800) – The Julio of Week 2?

Julian Edelman ($6,700) – Targets, targets, targets, targets, targets

Mike Wallace ($5,400) – Is Detroit going to “cover” him like they did Keenan Allen?

Donte Moncrief ($4,600) – Watch him if T.Y. Hilton is out

Terrence Williams ($4,200) – No Dez, and Witten and the RBs will get all Philly’s attention

Stevie Johnson ($4,200) – Chalk at a great price

TE

Jason Witten ($4,300) – Philly will try and stop him, but can they actually do it?

Tyler Eifert ($4,200) – Getting expensive; will he do it again?

Eric Ebron ($3,300) – Detroit may use him more and more

Darren Fells ($2,500) – Sometimes, you need a low-cost guy like him

D

Dolphins ($3,300) – All five defenses listed here play a dog of a QB

Rams ($3,100)

Panthers ($3,100)

Titans ($3,000)

Ravens ($2,900)

My Ticket

Carson Palmer, Matt Forte, Carlos Hyde, Julian Edelman, Jordan Matthews, Mike Wallace, Darren Fells, Mark Ingram, Ravens

Craig Clark is a Daily Fantasy Sports expert who appears weekly on the Harris Football Podcast (www.HarrisFootball.com). You can follow him on Twitter @pcclark59.