Bellator’s Big Gamble

After an action-packed summer that saw the UFC host an event what seemed like every weekend, the organization is taking a two-week break from our screens, giving us some time to digest a robust few months of combat sports. For those who have grown accustomed to these frequent dosages of MMA however, this two-week UFC drought is a bit of a stressful prospect. Suddenly, we’ll be forced to find our fighting fix elsewhere.

Well, here’s the good news. On September 19, Bellator will be taking the fight game’s center stage with a card that is equal parts revolutionary and risky: Bellator 142, nicknamed Dynamite. The card, which represents a radical departure from the Bjorn Rebney helmed events of yore, is a special one for a few reasons.

First, it’s special because it will feature a light heavyweight title fight between undefeated champion Liam McGeary and MMA trailblazer Tito Ortiz. Second, it’s a special event because it will include a one-night tournament—a real rarity in modern MMA—between four of the organization’s top light heavyweights: Muhammed “King Mo” Lawal, Linton Vassell, Emanuel Newton, and Phil Davis. And finally, it’s special because Bellator has partnered with Glory for a card that will also feature several kickboxing bouts, including a light heavyweight title fight between Saulo Cavalari and Zack Mwekassa. Yes, this landmark card represents a massive step for Bellator, Glory, and larger world of combat sports. Yet as with any big step, there also exists the potential for a big stumble…

In advance of this card, it’s clear that Bellator is going for an aesthetic of spectacle, just like their last tent pole event, which featured a super fight between former YouTube sensation Kimbo Slice and MMA legend Ken Shamrock. In attempting to create such a vibe, however, any number of things could go wrong.

Let’s start with the title fight atop the card.

Bellator has coupled its new light heavyweight champion McGeary—who narrowly outpointed Emanuel Newton to win the belt—with aging veteran Ortiz. Now, it’s true that Ortiz is currently on a two-fight streak, but the fact is simple: he is hardly a deserving challenger for a major title. It wasn’t that long ago, after all, that a 1-7-1 stretch sent him packing from the UFC. And really, it’s not like Bellator didn’t have any better options.

To this end, a rematch between McGeary and Newton would have been great, and given the competitive nature of their first fight, borders on imperative if McGeary is going to be sold as a legitimate champion. Even a pairing of McGeary and new Bellator signee Phil Davis would have been a stronger choice. Instead, however, the organization will attempt to give their champion a boost by feeding him a fading legend. And though a victory over Ortiz will be a big feather in the champ’s cap, at this stage it won’t mean nearly as much as a second defeat of Newton or a win over Davis would have. And more worryingly still, there’s the possibility that Ortiz beats McGeary. Then Bellator’s champion—and one of its biggest stars—becomes a man who could clearly not cut it in the UFC. And if Bellator hopes to stay competitive there needs to be at least some room for us to imagine that their champions might be the best in the world. In the case of Patricio Freire, this is not difficult. In the case of Ortiz, however, who we watched crash and burn in the UFC, this would be a tall order.

So, how about the one-night tournament. What could possibly go wrong?

Well, from a business perspective, the best thing for Bellator would be Phil Davis or Emanuel Newton (who fight each other in round one) fighting Linton Vassell in the final. Even Davis fighting King Mo in the final would be a decent outcome. The one thing that Bellator undoubtedly wants to avoid, however, is a pairing of Newton and King Mo in the finals. After all, the two light heavyweights have already fought twice before, with Newton winning handily both times. A third encounter between the two is something nobody needs—or wants—to see. Yet just as Ortiz could spoil the development of McGeary, we could well end up with Newton vs. King Mo 3 in the finals. Certainly an anti-climatic end to this highly anticipated tourney.

Then finally, there’s Bellator and Glory’s dual-sport fusion. On the surface, this is a very cool idea. By airing both sports at one event, Bellator’s product is exposed to kickboxing fans, and the sport of kickboxing is introduced to MMA fans. The problem with this collaboration, however, is that several of the event’s undercard MMA and kickboxing bouts will go down simultaneously. That is to say, turn right and you’ll get MMA in the cage, turn left, and you’ll get kickboxing in the ring. And while this might seem like a cool idea, it begs the question: where is a fight fan expected to look? What happens, for example, if in the excitement of watching the overhead replay of a Glory knockout we miss an MMA stoppage? Or if, in the excitement of watching a fighter lock up a submission, we miss a highlight reel KO in the Glory ring? Yes, upon closer examination, this two-fights-at-the-same-time scheduling looks like it could result in a bit of sensory overload.

Thankfully, these simultaneous bouts do not extend beyond the preliminary card. We’re not expected to watch Cavalari and Mwekassa duke it out at the same time as McGeary and Ortiz or anything. But still, this chaotic undercard schedule looks like a classic case of too much of a good thing.

Really, Bellator’s looming super-event is riddled with risks. Of course, any entrepreneur or businessperson will tell you the importance of risk-taking. Success is rarely had without rolling the dice. So, while this card does represent a sizeable gamble by the organization, some gambles do pay off big time, and this could be one of those gambles. The card could do huge numbers which, as Conor McGregor has reiterated so many times, are important in MMA. It could elevate the stock of Bellator’s light heavyweight champ and of some of its biggest stars. It could bring some much needed attention to Glory, which has struggled with low viewership in the past. And finally, it could be a truly dynamite night of combat sports action. It all depends on how the coin lands, and there’s no way to learn how that coin will land without tuning in. Heads or tails, this is not an event to miss.