Situation Impossible is a weekly column focusing on the most devastating injury of the week in the NFL. “Next Man Up” is a catchy phrase, but some players are harder to replace than others. Here we investigate the alternatives on hand and how a team reacted or will react to having to replace star-level performance.
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Injured player: Keenan Allen, San Diego Chargers wideout and fantasy football guy you’ve probably seen on live TV three times.
Injury and diagnosis: Break up the monotony of repeating the words ACL and Achilles! Allen had a hip injury a few weeks ago, played through it and seemed fine. Doctors held him overnight after last week’s game against Baltimore after determining his kidney was damaged. Doctors and NFL media men danced around a diagnosis for a bit, but we eventually came to the conclusion that it was a lacerated kidney.
A timeframe of 6-8 weeks would put Allen out until almost the end of the season. The Chargers put him on injured reserve. I’d be more willing to criticize the team for this move if they were playing well and/or this was a more “normal” football injury. Since it’s pretty off the wall, it’s probably for the best that they just give Allen the extra recovery time.
What’s missing: Not only is Allen San Diego’s best receiver, he also gets targeted an inordinate amount of times in this offense. You might point out that Antonio Gates was out the first four games, but Allen’s target numbers have actually been roughly the same since Gates came back. He’s a true No. 1 receiver. There are only two receivers with more targets this year:
That’s pretty exalted company. DeAndre Hopkins is fast becoming the second star stuck in Houston — the one that doesn’t make commercials. Julio Jones is one of the most dominant wideouts in the NFL. Allen is with them.
I used these guys as comparison because the low DVOA can be misleading. It’s hard to be both a volume target and an effective player — NFL teams are always balancing usage rate against talent. Allen has the best DVOA of the three of them. That tells you a lot about how incredible he’s been this year.
What the team will do: As far as roster moves go, the Chargers promoted Javontee Herndon from the practice squad. Herndon will probably be more of a special teams player than an actual offensive factor.
This is probably a chance for Ladarius Green to carve out a bigger role. In short bursts, he’s proven that he can handle the role that so many fantasy football experts projected for him. Going two-wide with Gates and Green is probably the smartest offensive approach for the Chargers.
I’m guessing head coach Mike McCoy will deal with this with whiskey sours and tears. With a chaser of more ball control.
Stevie Johnson used to be a No. 1 receiver. Can he be one again? Photo by Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
X-Factor: We’ve seen Stevie Johnson as a No. 1 wide receiver before. For a three-year span in Buffalo, he was a consistent threat to make 130 short catches and accumulate 1,000 yards. San Diego’s offense will depend on whether Johnson can take an expanded role. Second receiver Malcom Floyd is still more of a deep threat than an every down receiver.
Dontrelle Inman has seen modest success as a fourth receiver. He’s not much of a deep threat, though he did have a 68-yard first down catch against Cleveland.
Adjusting our expectations: San Diego is basically out of the playoff picture at this point. We do see some teams climb out of a bad first-half hole to make a run, but the Chargers would have to play .750 ball the rest of the season to get to .500. And in a tough AFC West, Football Outsiders gives them an 0.6% chance of making the playoffs.
But my curiosity goes elsewhere: What are the Chargers going to do with Keenan Allen?
He was dominant this year. He was dominant in his rookie year. But if we think his poor play in 2014 was injury-related, he’s got a long history of being dinged up. Injuries are 90 percent of the reason he was available for the Chargers in the third round in the first place.
Keenan Allen can score touchdowns, but can he stay on the field? Photo by Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports
So here’s the question as we head into the last year of Allen’s rookie deal: What is a player like this worth to NFL teams? Keep in mind that NFL head coaches and general managers value stability more than anything when it comes to building rosters.
Allen wasn’t a first-round pick, so the Chargers don’t get an extra year of control via the fifth-year option the NFL put into contracts in the new CBA. They could franchise Allen if they were truly worried about him as a long-term option, but they risk alienating him.
I’m very curious how this plays out. The NFL doesn’t have many players with star-level production that can’t stay on the field. Imagine if Sam Bradford was actually good, but played wideout. That’s what the Chargers are having to debate about Allen.
And after this latest injury, there will be more questions regarding his long term value.
