Four NFL Predictions that Missed the Mark, and What I Learned

As a columnist and analyst, I rack up a lot of hits. I was right about the Arizona Cardinals and the Kansas City Chiefs competing this year when they were supposed to be middle-of-the-pack teams, because I believed in their coaches. I saw the schedule and figured that a NFC South team would crank out wins left and right. I think I predicted the wrong outcome in just two playoff games this season.

But football isn't a predictable sport—16 games and roughly 1,200 snaps a season can tell us something about each team, but not everything—and there were cases in 2015 where I was incredibly wrong. Like, profoundly, earth-shakingly wrong. I like to think of myself as someone who can come to grips with a new reality quickly, however, so here are four of my worst predictions about the 2015 NFL season that didn't pan out, and what I am taking away from them.

Money Quote: "But with the Panthers desperate for offense and Tampa Bay suffering growing pains, it's not a stretch to suggest that the [defense] that improves the most could win the division. My money is on the Falcons."

This looked like a pretty smart prediction early on. The Falcons did have a better defense than New Orleans, but it was the offense that fell apart. Roddy White unraveled before our eyes, and Atlanta wasn't able to find anyone else effectively catch the ball. Julio Jones played hurt. The offensive line that had looked so good early in the season fell apart on Matt Ryan again, and he had the worst season of his career.

The Takeaway: Beware the team that relies on older receivers. This isn't to say that there aren't exceptions, as we see players like Steve Smith and Derrick Mason seemingly defy time. Older receivers can be an effective part of a passing game, but at the risk of a key cog washing up the way White did last year. He joins the likes of Andre Johnson and Reggie Wayne as great examples of players that went from borderline All-Pro to has-been in the span of a season.

Money Quote: "But they're embracing a preseason star without any pedigree or regular-season success to run the show. In doing so, they've probably made the wrong choice."

While the jury is still out on Taylor being a great NFL quarterback, he showed a lot last year, and any player who can hit the deep shots that he did is at least a capable starter. I didn't think he'd even get to that point. It has to be bitterly ironic for Bills fans that they found production like this from a quarterback but still didn't make the playoffs because of Rex Ryan's inept pass rush.

The Takeaway: Someone should offer Bills offensive coordinator Greg Roman a head-coaching job. Look at what he was able to do with Colin Kaepernick and now Taylor; then look at what those players have done without him. He's a bit of a golden goose, and perhaps the Jim Harbaugh apple doesn't fall that far from the tree.

Money Quote: "What Grigson has done this offseason is simple. Instead of focusing on deficiencies, he accentuated the team's strengths. In the course of doing so, he's set Luck up for a big step forward, and given him a fighting chance to be the best quarterback he can be."

Luck, of course, got hurt, and when he actually was on the field he played poorly—my guess is that undisclosed injuries hampered Luck during that time. Meanwhile, the supporting cast that Ryan Grigson brought in was, to be charitable, a clusterfuck. Texans head coach Bill O'Brien told Andre Johnson he'd only catch 40 balls in Houston, leading to an exit that felt like Johnson was being spurned. He caught 41 for the Colts. Frank Gore played more up to what critics expected, but he fumbled at the worst possible times and was stuck behind a bad offensive line.

The end result? Much like every other Andrew Luck Colts team, this was a top-heavy roster with no backup.

The Takeaway: I'm becoming skeptical of quick-fix free agent narratives. That's not to say that any given free agent can't be a boon for a team. A lot of good players hit the market and could fill big holes. If you look at the recent history of huge free agency splurges, though, you've got: the Dream Team Eagles, the Jairus Byrd Saints, the Phil Emery Bears, and now this Colts spree.

The best teams in the NFL have developed enough talent that they don't need to chase a wave of free agents. They'll make tactical strikes, of course, but expecting an influx of free agents to change everything is wishful thinking.

Money Quote: "Not only is Washington projected to have a pretty bad offense, but Jay Gruden also played things very conservatively in his first season. Washington finished 27th in the NFL in seconds per play on offense."

Washington never got weighed down by RGIII, as I predicted, because Griffin never started. Instead, we saw the development of Kirk Cousins spike. We saw a healthy Jordan Reed blossom and have the best season of his career. Washington was still a slow offense, which did keep their scoring total in check, but when you have the sixth-highest pass offense DVOA in the NFL, well, you're going to score some points.

The Takeaway: I actually don't think there's an easy one here, but what I'll remember most is that the supporting cast matters a lot. Washington was able to keep Cousins clean and give him a great list of receivers to target. I'm not in on Cousins as a full-time franchise quarterback yet—he ate up some garbage pass defenses and had some poor throws even in those games. But, like the Cincinnati Bengals with Andy Dalton, Washington was able to field a good pass offense around their quarterback. A healthy Reed changed the entire dynamic of Washington's offense.